Week 4: The Shakedown – Arlington Renegades vs St. Louis Battlehawks – Rebound or Re-Run?

By: Drew Wells (ARL) and Amirah Razman (STL)

Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.

To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!

Week 4 is here, and we have two XFL Conference foes facing one another this week. Both the Renegades and Battlehawks are coming off their first loss of the season, but both hope to bounce back. Who will come out on top? Let’s break it down!

Quarterbacks

Amirah Razman (STL)

Manny Wilkins has been dominant this season for the most part…except for last week. He struggled last week against a powerful DC D-line, going 16/29 for 147 yards and throwing 3 interceptions. Wilkins has gone over targets before, but last week was the first week where his true vulnerabilities were exposed. I’m usually pretty confident in his abilities, but this week I’m not too sure. I’m hoping last week was just one bad game, but if his struggles continue we might be in trouble. Meanwhile, despite a last-second loss to Birmingham, the Renegades are in good hands with Luis Perez. He remains a steady force for Arlington’s offense.

Advantage: Arlington Renegades

Drew Wells (ARL)

Manny Wilkins lit up the league in the first two weeks of this season for STL. His dynamic play-making ability fell short in week three, however, as the D.C. Defenders front seven contained him. This could be a huge turn in the season for that Battlehawks offense if teams can take advantage of the defensive blueprint laid out by D.C. For Arlington, Luis Perez has not exactly been lighting things up this season. He is a game manager (and a good one), but isn’t asked to win games for this team. If the run game isn’t there for Arlington, he will struggle. For my money, I’ll take the QB that gives defenses more to think about.

Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks

Running Backs

Amirah Razman (STL)

Jacob Saylors has been phenomenal all season, but last week was a quiet one as D.C. pounced all over the STL run game. He had 7 rushes for 1 yard last week with no touchdowns (something STL fans aren’t used to seeing). Nonetheless, Saylors remains a true threat — when he’s got the ball, he’ll run all over you. He’ll have to deal with Arlington’s defense this week, but I’m confident he’ll be able to make a significant contribution.

Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks

Drew Wells (ARL)

St. Louis’ offense ran into an absolute buzz saw last week when D.C. came to town. Jacob Saylors managed only one (1) yard, and his squad was forced to abandon the run game early on. They’ll face another run-stopping front seven that boasts 16 TFLs while only allowing 220 total rushing yards this year. Kalen Ballage and Dae Dae Hunter won’t have it easy, either… St. Louis doesn’t have the statistical dominance on defense that Arlington shows against the rush, but they do boast 13 TFLs themselves. Their defense relies on making big plays, and they are very good in their own right. The run game will come at a premium this week. I see the running back position as a push based on defensive strength in this game, despite my usual analytical focus being on talent for offensive position groups.

Advantage: Push

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Amirah Razman (STL)

It was a quiet week for the Battlehawks’ WR room. Not having Hakeem Butler in the lineup last week — Butler has been out dealing with a hamstring injury — is coming to haunt STL. The run game wasn’t quite working last week, and Butler’s elusiveness with the ball would’ve been a valuable asset. Jahcour Pearson was pretty quiet last week as well. Well, low and behold, Butler is out again — so it’s up to Jahcour Pearson and Jake Sutherland to once again take the charge. Pearson and Sutherland haven’t had many opportunities with the ball given STL’s approach to a run-heavy offense, so I give Arlington the advantage this week.

Advantage: Arlington Renegades

Drew Wells (ARL)

In terms of talent, this position group definitely sways in favor of the Battlehawks. That said, Arlington has had more yardage passing than St. Louis has on the year (583 – 498). I don’t think that is indicative of the wide-outs as much as it is the style of offense played by the two squads. The Battlehawks’ receivers are more likely to pop big plays, but Arlington’s receivers seem to pop up in critical situations to keep that offense moving. I’d like to give this to St. Louis, but I feel like Arlington will see more success.

Advantage: Arlington Renegades

Offensive Line

Amirah Razman (STL)

The Battlehawks’ offensive line struggled a lot last week, granted they did play arguably one of the best defenses in the league. There were a few moments where it seemed like the O-Line had things under control, but DC’s defense was just too powerful to overcome. Expect STL to bounce back across the board, but especially the O-Line. Marc Colombo knows how to coach this line, and he knows how to do it well — they just have to make sure they are covering everyone and not leave Wilkins scrambling like he did last week. Based on their overall performance and the expectation that they will come back with a vengeance, I give STL the advantage.

Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks

Drew Wells (ARL)

I see this position group as a critical element of the game between these squads. Statistically, St. Louis has had a very balanced offensive output in terms of yardage. The Battlehawks, however, were exposed last week against a strong defensive front. Similarly, Arlington has been well-balanced. The have seemed to decline a bit across their three games so far, granted they have played a tougher schedule to date. I think St. Louis will definitely have the edge here if Wilkins can get to the edge. The same would go for Luis Perez in Arlington, but he simply doesn’t have that in his toolbox. That means Arlington’s line will be under much more pressure to perform.

Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks

Defensive Line

Amirah Razman (STL)

It was primarily a huge defensive game last week, and STL’s defensive core continues to show why it’s special. There were plenty of big stops last week, and despite the Defenders showing STL’s weaknesses, the D-line still came up strong, preventing Jordan Ta’amu from fully going haywire. STL’s defense was responsible for 2 turnovers last week. Expect the D-line to continue to shine this week as they face a stagnant Arlington offense with Luis Perez at the helm. However, Arlington has a strong defense as well — they were able to make some big plays last week against a slightly-weakened Birmingham offense. No one truly has an advantage based on stellar performances last week. We’ll likely see another spectacular defensive showing on both sides this week.

Advantage: Push

Drew Wells (ARL)

Both of these defensive fronts are extremely good. This will be a short evaluation, however, as each team puts the clamps on the opposing run game as a matter of habit. Can either squad make plays in the pass rush? That’s going to be the question. The key to an Arlington victory in this game will be if they can keep Manny Wilkins in the pocket all game. If they do that, they win. Both groups are more than capable.

Advantage: Push

Linebackers

Amirah Razman (ARL)

So long as Pita Taumoepenu continues to be on the field, all offenses should be worried about STL’s linebacker room. Taumoepenu is known for his constant ability to sack quarterbacks, but he wasn’t quite able to do it last week. However, the Renegades signed Taco Charlton this week — a great depth addition to their already star-studded defense. We’ll see how he performs in his first game. Despite STL’s LB room playing lights out last week, the addition of Charlton, gives Arlington the advantage.

Advantage: Arlington Renegades

Drew Wells (ARL)

The front seven for these teams are almost a carbon copy of each other. Very good schemes maximize the abilities of each LB corps, and they are both all over the field. I can’t overlook exactly how active the Battlehawks’ linebackers have been in every single game so far, though. Arlington’s linebackers make plays for sure, but the St. Louis corps is something impressive to watch. They ball-hawk, gang tackle, disguise blitzes… It’s something to behold. Arlington’s defense is pragmatic, and it works very well for them. In terms of dynamic performances and ability, the edge goes to the Battlehawks.

Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks

Defensive Backs

Amirah Razman (STL)

Kameron Kelly was the star of the show last week, coming up big on a Jordan Ta’amu interception. The Battlehawks’ secondary continued to be in good hands despite a dominating D.C. offense last week. STL will have it quite easy again if Arlington’s offense continues to remain stagnant.

Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks

Drew Wells (ARL)

St. Louis’ Kameron Kelly and Arlington’s Joe Powell are established play-makers in the secondary. Despite Ajene Harris being a supporting play maker for Arlington, the talent in St. Louis is overwhelming. The Battlehawks’ sport five interceptions by five different players, and slightly edge Arlington in terms of PBUs. I think Joe Powell is the best defensive back on the field between the defenses, but the Battlehawks have the better unit overall.

Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks

Win and Score Predictions

Amirah Razman (STL)

Advantage Count: St. Louis Battlehawks (3), Arlington Renegades (3), Push (1)

This will be yet another great game for both teams on both sides of the ball. Both teams are coming off losses, but both teams have strong rosters that have not shown any signs of slowing down. I hope, for my sake, that STL (specifically Manny Wilkins) figures it out on offense this week as they deal with another opponent with a strong defense. I’m not worried about STL’s defensive performance, given that they can still come up big even against a stronger offense. There will be a fair amount of offense and defense on both sides, but I think STL comes out victorious at the end to improve to 3-1. St. Louis, 21-15.

Drew Wells (ARL)

Advantage Count: St. Louis Battlehawks (4), Arlington Renegades (1), Push (2)

To me, this game very simply comes down to if Manny Wilkins can have any success running the ball on his own. St. Louis has arguably the best coaching staff in the UFL, and I can’t imagine them failing to make adjustments to try to get Manny Wilkins to the edge by moving the pocket. Arlington will have their hands full in trying to keep him contained. Despite this whole section gassing up the Battlehawks, a dual-threat QB is typically only successful if his RBs are having success and making the defense respect them. We saw what happened last week against D.C., and I can’t ignore that. It’ll be a close one. Arlington, 15-13.

Betting Predictions

Line: Battlehawks (-1) O/U: 39.5

Amirah Razman (STL)

I think STL wins, but not enough to cover the spread. I do anticipate a close game, but I do believe there will be big plays on offense. Take the under as well.