By: Cory Lozier (HOU) and Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
The Houston Roughnecks take on the Birmingham Stallions this week in Houston, Texas; a USFL division rivalry with two different story lines. It took the Roughnecks three weeks to figure out the solution to a stagnant offense and the answer is defense. While, the Stallions have been putting a well balanced team on the field week after week. Even last week with a slow start, they made changes to get the win. This week will test each team in different ways. However, remaining consistent from one game to the next is key for both.
Quarterbacks
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Through three weeks only one thing has been consistent with the quarterback play, such as, Anthony Brown struggling to prove his ability to move the ball on a regular basis. Brown is dangerous in the scramble situation because he can extend the play with his legs. Throwing on the run and being accurate doing it has proven to be a challenge for him.
When Nolan Henderson takes over it looks like a completely different offense. He is mobile when he needs to be, patient in the pocket, and accurate when targeting his receivers down field. In this case I fully expect the quarterback play for Houston to look similar to week one going against such a strong defense.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Matt Corral has only completed 52.9% of his passes, but he has managed to work his way up to fifth in passing yards, even with only playing in two games compared to most quarterbacks who have three starts. Corral has found the end zone twice in those two games, and if he can protect the ball better, he and his offense should have a good chance of winning. Over in Houston, Anthony Brown has one touchdown and three interceptions. However, Nolan Henderson has two touchdowns and zero picks. It’s very close in this department, but I’m leaning towards Birmingham.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Running Backs
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Certainly the best run game so far this season for Houston. Still with the quarterbacks scrambling and running around a lot of the ground yardage comes from them. Through 3 weeks Zequandre White has been better utilized as a receiver out of the backfield. That isn’t a bad thing but it doesn’t add much balance to an already struggling offense. Not to mention, Houston is going up against a team that knows how to stop the run and tackle behind the sticks. Getting the run game going will need to be a priority for the Roughnecks if they want any chance at hanging with the Stallions offense. However, this may be a little closer than we think. Because much of the Stallions success comes from the passing game. As we saw last week when they were held to 53 yards on the ground against Arlington.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
As a team, Houston has produced only 28 more yards on the ground, but the team rushing leader is Henderson. It’s not by a lot, but the Stallions rely on their running backs a bit more. Also, Houston has yet to score a touchdown this season on the ground,d while Birmingham has one. It’s small, but the advantage leans to Birmingham.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Cory Lozier (HOU)
With the right Quarterback on the field Houston has the better receiving core. The issue being the drops, as I mentioned in past “Shakedowns”. Because of the inconsistency at QB the Stallions edge out this category. The Roughnecks defense will have their hands full with the Deon Cain(if available)/Matt Coral connection. Against the Renegades, Cain hauled in all four targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. What is going to make him stand out in this match-up is his ability to rack up the yards after the catch. Houston defenders have only gotten the tackling thing down but this could be another team to test that. Also, Cain’s big play ability is to be acknowledged. His longest catch last week was a 52 yarder. And against a lesser defense those post game stats may be bigger numbers or more often.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
The leading receiver on Houston, Justin Hall, has 55 receiving yards while six different players on Birmingham have more than that! Deon Cain, Cade Johnson and Marlon Williams have been picking up big chunks of yardage. Impressively, Johnson averages 19.5 yards a catch! Even with the goal-line fumble, Jace Sternberger has been more active over the last two weeks.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Offensive Line
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The O-line for Houston has had their fair share of struggles for example they have had positive plays called back from penalties, weren’t creating holes for the running back, and couldn’t keep the QB safe for nothing. However, last week against the Showboats they did really well. Only 4 offensive penalties all game and only one really had an effect on the offense. Another big aspect I like to look at is how many sacks were given up. The line only gave up one sack last week, their best performance so far. But (Birmingham) DE Bradlee Anae is tied for the top spot in sacks in the league. We can expect Anae to really bring the pressure and make whoever’s under center uncomfortable.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
The stat that matters most to me when it comes to the offensive line is sacks given up. Houston has given up five while Birmingham has given up eight. I have to give it to the Roughnecks.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Defensive Line
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The D-Line for Houston has really shown improvement and not necessarily in the stats that everyone can read. They have been doing better at getting off their blocks and making contact with the ball carrier at the line of scrimmage. The one that is a readable stat is tackle for loss. I don’t expect them to be the best overnight but they do have some good contributors in (DL) Darrius Moragne and (DT) Israel Antwine. But the match-up between the Houston D-Line and the Stallions O-Line should be an entertaining one. I mentioned why Birmingham’s defensive line is dangerous in the above section.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
It’s very similar, but for the defensive line, sacks are the deciding factor. Birmingham is tied for second in the league with seven, while Houston is tied for fourth with five. Both defensive lines can cause pressure, but the Stallions have been more fierce. Birmingham’s Bradlee Anae is tied as the league’s individual sack leader with three. He will need to add to his total to give his team a better chance of winning.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Linebackers
Cory Lozier (HOU)
From the Linebacker standpoint these teams are pretty evenly matched. Both teams do a great job of plugging holes and tackling. Houston has been the team to create more opportunities with turnovers and good stops. In contrast, the Stallions Linebackers (DeMarquis Gates to be specific) are going to get to the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage. I think collectively the Roughnecks have a more well rounded group at the linebacker position.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
For another week, wherever the ball is, Kyahva Tezino and Tae Crowder seem to be not far behind. It could be a sign of a good line-backing corps when they pick up the tackles, but it could also be a sign of a “BLAH” defensive line. I’m leaning towards the former heading into this week.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Defensive Backs
Cory Lozier (HOU)
For Houston this is the position that got them the victory over the Renegades. Comparatively Houston may have one of the more productive DB groups in the league. They have really stepped up the game play and defensively have taken advantage of their situations. Leon O’Neal has been a consistent leader for the guys in the secondary. And he’s showing it with his actions on the field, for instance, making open field tackles, interceptions, pick sixes, and just great defense. Last week that mentality seemed to be a little contagious. Keenan Isaac (CB) threw his hat in the ring with an interception and 2 pass breakups while Damon Arnette (CB) had two good deflections.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Birmingham has two interceptions compared to Houston’s one. It is a very slight difference, but it could play an important role. Quarterbacks on both sides have been sloppy with the ball early in the season, so turnovers could be the difference. I’m going to go with a push here just because both quarterbacks have shown they don’t know which team they are throwing to.
Advantage: Push
Win and Score Predictions
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Advantage Count: Houston Roughnecks (4), Birmingham Stallions (3), Push (0)
Don’t get fooled by my advantage count. I mentioned earlier in the article that this is a game where I can see the Houston Roughnecks take a step back. A lot of how the Roughnecks perform will be based on two things: QB decision and execution. I know that sounds obvious, but as of now I don’t believe Anthony Brown is the best fit for the offense’s success and I’m not sure if Head Coach C.J. Johnson is willing to make that change. Birmingham, 26-18.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Advantage Count: Birmingham Stallions (5), Houston Roughnecks (1), Push (1)
It’s going to be another close game, and neither team is likely going to hit 20. I’m hoping for Corral to take control of this game, but it’s still looking like a Stallions win either way. Birmingham 17-14.
Betting Predictions
Line: Stallions (-7.5) O/U: 36.5
Cory Lozier (HOU)
I do expect the Stallions to leave TDECU Stadium with the win. I expect them to cover the 7.5 point spread with the over hitting.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
I think Birmingham should win, but -7.5 is a big spread for how this team has been playing. The safer bet is to take Houston +7.5, but take the Stallions if you’re working the money line. The over/under of 36.5 is another low one, but neither team has been explosive on offense. I’d take the under here.