By: Royce Waxenfelter (MEM) and Cory Lozier (HOU)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
Though both teams have 2 losses under their belt, only the Showboats have the luxury of saying they have been competitive in both of their games. The winner of this match will have hope. The loser? A deep 0-3 hole to climb out of.
Quarterbacks
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The Showboats used E.J. Perry exclusively in game 2 against the Defenders. Outside of one interception E.J. performed well and even seemed to carry the momentum of offense when he needed to. Statistically he had solid outing, completing 18 of 28 passes for 194 yards and also ran for a touchdown. For Houston, Athony Brown played the majority of the snaps at QB for the Roughnecks in Game 2, to the detriment of the team. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes and at times looked lost out there. I have a feeling Nolan Henderson or maybe even Jalan McClendon could see more time at QB for Houston in Game 3.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The Quarterback play for Houston has not been exciting through the first two weeks. QB Anthony Brown continues to struggle with consistency and accuracy. Constantly off target with his receivers and turning the ball over in important situations. However, there is a glimmer of hope. The Roughnecks struggled to find any rhythm and move the ball down the field. The no huddle or quick tempo offense was the answer in both games. The solution seems simple right? Get the ball out quick and into the hands of your play-makers, something Houston has had trouble doing.
I think Memphis’ Quarterbacks command their offense a little better. They are good at finding the holes in the zones, stepping up in the pocket, and utilizing short passes for positive gains.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Running Backs
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Showboat running back Jacob Kibodi saw his first action of the season against the Defenders on Saturday, showing he has the ability to make good jump cuts but will need to improve on his average of 2.5 yards per carry. Deneric Prince had fewer carries but more yards, hitting 46 yards on 9 carries for a healthy 4.9-yard average. After 2 games the offensive backfield is shaping up like this: Deneric Prince the go-to constant gainer, Kibodi first off the bench for explosiveness, and Jalen Jackson as support. The Roughnecks RB room was held to fewer than 3 yards per carry in Game 2 with ZaQuandre White getting the most carries. Kirk Merritt and Lorenzo round out the Houston backfield but didn’t do well against the Renegades. It’s a bad sign when the QB out-gains the best running back on the team.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Cory Lozier (HOU)
This match-up is close if you look at stats alone. It becomes more lopsided when you start looking at the breakdown by position. Both teams started the season with a terrible showing but found a way to be more involved in week 2. The only issue for Houston is that in both weeks the best run hasn’t come at the running backs; it’s been the quarterback position. QB Anthony Brown is more dangerous with his legs and carries the run game more than the running backs. Memphis is heading into week two with a more balanced offense so the potential for a more efficient, more successful run game is greater.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Jonathan Adams leads all UFL receivers after 2 games, outdoing his league-best week 1 performance in Week 2, pulling down 9 of 10 targets for 128 yards. When interviewed on the sideline, Quarterback E.J. Perry said, “That’s what we need to do, get Jay Adams the ball.” Kwamie Lassiter also had some quality catches, as did Dee Anderson. Roughnecks, on the other hand, have Justin Hall. It’s impossible not to put Hall in the top 3 talented pass catchers in the UFL. His biggest struggle this season will not be ‘can he get open?’, but ‘when he is open, can the Houston QB get him the ball?’. Roughnecks WRs Emmanuel Butler, Keke Chism, and the brand-new addition of Marcus Simms will ride with him on that struggle bus.
Advantage: Push
Cory Lozier (HOU)
I still stand by my statement that the Roughnecks receiving core is one of the better ones in the league. Unfortunately, the other pieces to the puzzle have been off to a slow start. This being a team sport and Memphis having the more balanced offense, I think they edge this one out. The Showboats’ number one receiver, Jonathan Adams, has more upside this week. More potential for splash plays and he will have a bigger impact on the game.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Offensive Line
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The Showboats O-line showed again that they are leaps and bounds ahead of where they were last season. The same defense that sacked Alex McGough 8 times in Week 1 drew a donut against the Showboats’ big blockers. Right Guard Nash Jensen and Center Alec Lindstrom lead the push forward. The Roughnecks Offensive Line had a much better game in Week 2, but they never had enough of a push to sustain drives and get on the board on a regular basis.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Houston’s o-line made significant improvements from one week to the next. They still have work to be done but they were 110% better last week. (I mentioned this in my last article.) The o-line blocked better, they opened up the run lanes, and they were more disciplined in terms of offensive penalties. It was a complete 180 from the unit that was on the field in week one. In comparison to this week’s match-up, Memphis has had similar defensive struggles to Houston. I think the Roughnecks o-line has a chance to show their strength here. In the same vein, I think the line doesn’t look as good as it should because of the QB’s inability to release the ball quick enough.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Line
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Boogie Roberts had a momentum-killing sack and P.J. Hall had a huge tackle-for-loss on a third and goal situation in their game against the Defenders. John Atkins Sr. and Jaylon Allen also use the bull rush to cause havoc behind the line of scrimmage. The pressure put on by the Showboats front-men are the primary reason Memphis is tied with Houston at third in tackles for loss. Houston’s defensive line is solid too, with veteran Olive Sagapolu crashing through O-lines like a hot knife through butter. A very, very large hot knife. T.J. Franklin, Darius Moragne and Jamir Jones round out the D-Line starters but while the pass rush is strong, they need to improve their stance against the run.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Cory Lozier (HOU)
My feelings about the defensive line are similar to what I feel about the o-line. A completely different unit walked on the field in week two. They were plugging holes, getting stops behind the line of scrimmage, and they kept the plays in front of them. My only gripe is that no matter how much they try, they can not keep a ball carrier from reaching the second level on a regular basis. On the bright side, Houston’s d-line was able to establish a pass rush, getting to the quarterback two times against the Renegades. I think the Roughnecks win this position battle, but again, it’s hard to tell which unit will show up to the field on Saturday.
Advantage: Push
Linebackers
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
For Memphis, Steele Chambers’ 20 tackles lead the UFL and counterpart Zeke Vandenburgh is tied with Frank Ginda for 2nd in tackles with 17. Houston’s J.T. Tyler and Marvin Moody are awesome, top 20 tacklers statistically, but top 20 isn’t top 3.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Both teams will feature players at the Linebacker position that will contribute in their own way.
The Roughnecks may struggle with the inside run but anything on the outside has a better chance of being stopped. Houston showed last week against the Renegades that they are able to control the outer running lanes. Linebackers Marvin Moody Jr., Tashawn Bower ,and Xavier Benson have made it a priority to take care of the tackle first while contributing to the pass rush.
Zeke Vandenburgh and Steele Chambers will be bringing consistency to this match-up. Both were the one and two leading tacklers through two weeks. They’re also the duo that the team will rely on to keep the Houston ground game in check. There may be a chance for Houston to utilize the short pass game as they don’t have a single deflection or breakup in either game.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Defensive Backs
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Showboats DBs Eli Walker, Kyree Woods, Lance Boykin, and Mark Gilbert combined for 4 pass break-ups and limited Jordan Ta’Amu to connect on only 12 of his 26 passes. Keaton Ellis, Tenny Adewusi and Eric Garror joined in the backfield and caused Ta’Amu’s pass yards to plummet from 211 in week 1 to 152 against Memphis. While the Roughnecks did allow 211 yards in the air against the Renegades they limited arguably the best QB in the UFL to 1 TD pass. On the Houston side, they have the best Strong Safety in the league, in my opinion: Markel Roby. He’s joined by Leon O’Neal, a Free Safety who should end up with a ton of tackles this year as often as the Houston defense is on field. Cornerback Corn Elder gets my vote for the UFL’s best DB off the bench. Overall, the Roughnecks unit is a strong one.
Advantage: Push
Cory Lozier (HOU)
In this category, I think, The Roughnecks edge out the ‘Boats for the win. (S) Markel Roby and (S) Leon O”Neal have been the standouts in the secondary. They were getting to the quarterback, tackling behind the line, and creating turnovers. I know this may seem repetitive from an earlier section but at their peak they play well as a complete unit. What I would like to see a little more is for them to be aggressive when it comes to guarding the short passes. About 8-of-10 short yardage passes will be a completion because the defense is too afraid to give up the big plays. For this reason, the Showboats have a slight advantage on short yardage plays because of how well they execute the screen pass. Overall, Houston has the more productive DB’s.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Win and Score Predictions
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Advantage Count: Arlington Renegades (5), Houston Roughnecks (0), Push (2)
As long as the Showboats defense stays intact, I am inclined to predict low-scoring games for their match-ups. Neither Houston or Memphis have scored more than 12 points per game so far. These defensively lopsided teams will stymie each other with a Matt Coghlin field goal deciding the difference. Memphis 13-10.
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Advantage Count: Memphis Showboats (3), Houston Roughnecks (2), Push (2)
This has the makings to be another defensive battle for the Roughnecks. If anything other than excellent shows up on Houston’s defensive side of the ball, E.J. Perry and company can walk up and down the field. Judging on how well the Showboats can get their offense moving while minimizing mistakes, ‘Boats get the win. Memphis, 24-14.
Betting Predictions
Line: Showboats (-3) O/U: 36.5
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The high-powered defenses and low-output offenses will keep the score low and tight. Since the spread of 3 matches my predicted score difference, I am personally going to avoid betting on the spread this week. If forced, I’d take Memphis to cover. Even with the Over/Under bet setting at a very low 35.5, I am going with the Under.
Cory Lozier (HOU)
This even match-up will be won at the quarterback position. I would take the Showboats to win and cover the spread, with the over of 36.5 hitting.
