By: Jesse Germonprez (MICH) and Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
The Panthers and Showboats meet again under the Friday night lights, this time at Ford Field. Both teams head into Week 4 with something to prove. Michigan is looking to bounce back from a close loss to Houston, while Memphis continues to search for its first win of the season. With key injuries, coaching shifts, and quarterback questions on both sides, this one could get interesting.
Quarterbacks
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
The Panthers head into this one with some uncertainty under center. Danny Etling started last week but exited early after taking a shot that resulted in a concussion. That opened the door for Bryce Perkins, who stepped in and kept the offense moving. Perkins brings mobility and poise, and when he gets the nod Friday night, Michigan may lean heavier into RPO looks and quick-game concepts that cater to his strengths. Michigan also signed free agent QB Alan Bowman out of Oklahoma this Monday.
On the other side, Memphis is coming off a frustrating loss to Houston. E.J. Perry threw a costly interception in the third quarter and was replaced by Troy Williams. Williams brought energy, running for a late touchdown, and nearly tied it up. A clutch-time 4th-and-12 conversion ended in a fumble after the catch. With Etling likely sidelined, Michigan’s path to success may ride on letting Perkins find rhythm early and fully settle into the role.
Advantage: Michigan
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The Showboats E.J. Perry is erratic so far this year, showing signs of solid leadership at times, then throwing wild passes off his back foot under pressure. Troy Williams came in to relieve him last week and almost got the W for the Showboats. Whichever QB they use will need to avoid throwing interceptions if they want a chance at winning. For the Panthers, Etling’s injury helps clear up who the playing time will go to. That’s good for the Panthers, because Bryce Perkins is clearly the best QB on the team. Against Memphis bull-rush defense he will need to use his legs to escape the pocket on a regular basis, but for his sake I hope he doesn’t try any more player hurdling.
Advantage: Michigan
Runningbacks
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
With Matt Colburn placed on IR before the Brahmas game, the Panthers turned to Nate McCrary as the lead back—and he answered the call with physical, downhill runs without notable production. Toa Taua mixed in for some early-down work, and rookie Jaden Shirden made the most of his UFL debut with a lightning-fast 43-yard touchdown burst that gave Michigan a badly needed jolt. Shirden showed big-play potential that this offense has been missing on the ground.
Meanwhile, Memphis continues to struggle in the run game. In last week’s loss, quarterback Troy Williams led the team in rushing yards, while Darius Prince, their primary back, managed just 16 yards on 12 carries. That kind of production won’t cut it against a Panthers front that’s played stout against the run all season.
Advantage: Michigan
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Showboat running back play was locked down by the Roughnecks, with both Deneric Prince and Jalen Jackson held to under 2 yards per carry. The Panthers will try to mimic that highly effective run-stop mode. Panther Jaden Shirden saw his first action of the season last week and the anticipated hype was matched by his spin move and burst of speed. It’s only a small sample size, but if he can keep up the type of performance he had for the Panthers in game 3 he will make Wes Hills a distant memory and end up near the top of the league in rush yards. Depth due to injuries and the daunting Memphis D-Line are the only things that might derail Michigan.
Advantage: Michigan
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
The Panthers’ pass-catching group put together one of its best collective performances of the season in Week 3. Devon Ross stepped up in a big way, posting 3 receptions for 51 yards and adding serious juice in the return game with 6 kick returns for 212 yards—his best all-around effort of the year.
Malik Turner and Siaosi Mariner were steady and productive, each finishing with 5 receptions for 51 yards, giving Bryce Perkins multiple reliable options all night long.
For Memphis, Dee Anderson and Jonathan Adams both had productive outings against Houston, showing flashes of physicality and strong hands. But despite the yardage, the Showboats couldn’t crack the end zone.
Advantage: Michigan
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
After 3 weeks Showboat Jonathan Adams still holds the top spot for catches and
receiving yards (20 for 263). Kwamie Lassiter showed up big time against Houston
contributing 6 catches for 79 yards. Kai Locksley and Isaish Washington also helped take the pressure off with some sure-handed grabs. Memphis will need to figure out a way to involve their Tight Ends more against the Panthers stalwart defense. Although the Panthers traded away speedster Marcus Simms, they didn’t seem to miss a beat in Week 3 against the Brahmas. Siaosi Mariner and Malik Turner each nabbed 5 for 54 and Devin Ross added 51 yards of his own. Anytime you’ve got 3 over 50 you are depleting the lungs of the opposing defensive backs. Add Samson Nacua, Cole Hikutini and Gunner Oakes to that mix… yowza! Depth gives the Panthers the edge at the receiving positions.
Advantage: Michigan
Offensive Line
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Michigan’s line has held its own despite inconsistent offensive play. They’ve done just enough to create running lanes and have held up in pass protection when the pocket is moving. Both Michigan and Memphis allowed just one sack last week, and while the Panthers found a little more success on the ground, Memphis looked improved in pass protection.
With a mobile quarterback like Bryce Perkins, Michigan’s line doesn’t have to be perfect—but they do need to be more consistent. Memphis, on the other hand, has shown flashes of stability and could be trending upward under pressure.
Advantage: Push
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The Showboats O-line showed some cracks against the Roughnecks, especially on run plays. They just couldn’t get a big push forward. The good news is their pass-locking is better than average, especially when you compare it to last year. That said, the Michigan O-line has been somewhat of an Achilles’ heel for them so far this year. They ended up dropping Grant Miller, who they just signed last week, so they are still in experimentation mode. That could spell trouble against the Showboats, who have one of the best D-line / linebacker combos in the league, if not THE best. Neither O-line is ready for the Defenses they are about to face, but the ability to pass block a bit better gives the Showboats a slight edge here.
Advantage: Memphis
Defensive Line
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Even with Breeland Speaks out, the Panthers’ front continues to be disruptive. Garrett Marino, Kenny Willekes, and Mika Tafua have all generated pressure and played their gaps well. If Levi Bell can stay healthy and increase his workload—after missing Week 1 and notching just one tackle in Week 2—this unit could become even more dangerous as the season progresses.
Memphis has struggled to consistently get home, but Boogie Roberts remains as disruptive as ever. Izayah Green-May is coming along nicely as a complementary piece along the defensive line. They’re not quite where they want to be yet, but they’re starting to show flashes.
Advantage: Michigan
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Memphis Defensive Tackle P.J. Hall continues to impress this season, breaking through and disrupting plays on a regular basis. Boogie Roberts seems to be back to his 2023 form and Jaylon Allen is crumpling Tackles like tissue paper. Big John Atkins Sr. and Jaylon Allen also use the bull rush to cause havoc behind the line of scrimmage. The pressure from the Showboats front men is the primary reason they’re tied with Houston at third in TFLs.
Memphis aren’t as deep as they were when they met the Panthers in Week 1. On the Panthers side, they are also missing a key piece of the D-line, DPOY Breeland Speaks. Kenny Willekes, Levi Bell, and Garrett Marino are playing well enough to make his loss look less impactful. Throw in Walter Palmore, T.J. Carter, Ron’Dell Carter and Mika Tafua and you have a recipe for Tackles for Loss. One of the rare times Memphis doesn’t win this category.
Advantage: Michigan
Linebackers
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Frank Ginda continues to be the heartbeat of Michigan’s defense. Last week, he racked up 4 solo tackles, 5 assists, and 0.5 sack, showing his usual nose for the ball and leadership in the middle. Noah Dawkins has been flying under the radar as one of the more consistent sideline-to-sideline players in the league.
Memphis brings the heat with Steele Chambers, who is currently leading the UFL in total tackles. Right behind him is Zeke Vandenburgh, who wrapped up his college career at Illinois State with 256 tackles, 43.5 TFLs, and 24 sacks. The Showboats’ linebacker unit is flying to the ball and playing with speed and physicality.
Advantage: Memphis
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Steele Chambers and Zeke Vandenburgh are the best LB tandem in the league right
now covering the middle of the field like a blanket of grenades. They are also proving
they are both well-rounded by blasting run defenses. Panther Frank Ginda is undeniably a top linebacker in the UFL, perennially. He’s got the support of Bryce Torneden, Javin White, and Noah Dawkins. The Panthers have the Showboats beat at depth, but Steele Chambers is at the top of his game right now, and the top of the UFL linebacker list.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Backs
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
This is one of Michigan’s strongest position groups. Kai Nacua has been everywhere—second on the team in tackles, with an interception and multiple PBUs. Arnold Tarpley III brings leadership and anticipation, and DJ Miller Jr. already has two picks this year. Brock Miller has been tested and continues to respond.
Memphis safety Keaton Ellis led the team with 6 tackles last week—outpacing even Chambers—while cornerback Kyree Woods followed closely behind with 4. Houston struggled to move the ball for most of the game until late, and defensive coordinator Jarren Horton has this unit flying around and playing with confidence. They’re looking more like the Memphis Maulers with each passing week.
Advantage: Michigan
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
In a surprise move, the Showboats waived Tenny Adewusi this week, making room for safety Ravarius Rivers who comes over from the IFL. He was the DPOY last season. Keaton Ellis made great plays last week for Memphis, forcing a fumble along with 2 TFLs and 6 solo tackles. Fellow DBs accounted for another 20 total tackles, but they’ll need to get a few interceptions against the Panthers to prove their value. Panthers DBs are among the tops in the UFL this year, thanks in no small part to D.J. Miller, who leads the UFL in interceptions. Kai Nacua, Arnold Tarpley, and Adonis Alexander have all had great moments this season as well. Until we know what Ravarius Rivers can do in this league, Panthers take this category.
Advantage: Michigan
Win and Score Predictions
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Advantage Count: Michigan Panthers (6), Memphis Showboats (0), Push (1)
This is a big opportunity for Michigan. They’ve already beaten Memphis once—on the road—and now get them at home while the Showboats are in a state of transition. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt officially stepped down this week, and while interim leadership may rally the locker room, that’s a tough adjustment on a short week.
Troy Williams has shown flashes and the Memphis defense is starting to come together, but red zone issues, QB inconsistency, and the lack of a reliable run game continue to limit their upside. If Michigan protects the football and plays to their strengths, this should be another statement win in the USFL Conference. Michigan, 23-13.
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Advantage Count: Michigan Panthers (6), Memphis Showboats (0), Push (1)
The valiant play by the under-appreciated Showboats defense has kept them in each game this year, despite a lackluster offense. The Panthers are piling up injuries like Michigan sidewalks do snow; can the Showboats take advantage? Not if Bryce Perkins embraces his dual-threat ability and breaks down the defense with timely runs. Michigan, 20-14.
Betting Predictions
Line: Michigan (-7) O/U: 35.5
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
If you’re riding with the Panthers, playing the points at home feels like the safest play. The defense has proven it can carry games, and the offense is finding its footing behind Perkins. Memphis has been shaky in both red zone execution and ball security. The under might also be tempting based on how both offenses have looked, but Michigan’s special teams and explosive play threats make it risky. I would stick to Michigan -7.
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
As I write this the over/under is 35.5. The defenses of these teams are outstanding so I will once again be betting the Under. The spread has Michigan by 7, and I believe the Showboats will hinder the Panthers offense just enough. I’ll take Memphis to cover.