By: Drew Wells (ARL) and Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
Arlington has started the season on absolute fire, winning in blowouts during their first two games this year. Birmingham struggled hard in a hostile D.C. environment to start their year, but rebounded well last week against Michigan. Who will prevail in a match-up between Championship-caliber teams with top defenses?
Quarterbacks
Drew Wells (ARL)
Alex McGough was injured (shoulder) last week, so Matt Corral steps in at the helm. In terms of pure ability, it is unquestionable in my mind that Corral is a better QB than Luis Perez. It seems like Perez is akin to the famous Batman villain “Two-Face”… His performances are either really good or fairly bad, with not much room in between. He is primed to go off at any time, but the trigger is not apparent to anyone in particular. Perez has the better blocking through two games, but Corral is the better play maker.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
This is a very interesting match-up right out of the gate. On paper, Arlington’s quarterback, Luis Perez, is the clear winner heading into this week’s 3 matchup. However, in two games he has only found the endzone once, which Corral and McGough have combined for two passing touchdowns. It also depends on who ultimately starts for Birmingham. I like Corral a lot better than I do McGough, and I think Corral should be the clear starter. Even with McGough’s availability questionable at this time, I will lean towards Birmingham.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Running Backs
Drew Wells (ARL)
Kalen Ballage and Dae Hunter have proven their worth in the league, both being top-3 rushers in the league after two weeks. The Renegades emphasize the run and like to play smart, conservative offense. Meanwhile, the Stallions haven’t found a ton of success using the legs of Ricky Person, Jr. Arlington sports a stout defensive front seven, so it will be hard to jump start that run game this week.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Arlington already has two rushers over 100 yards after only two games, while Birmingham’s leading rusher at 85 yards, McGough, might not even play. I truly think Person Jr. can take over any game, but he hasn’t been given the opportunity yet. Both Ballage and Dae Hunter have been pivotal to Arlington’s early success. Ballage alone has 148 yards and averages 7 yards a carry. If Birmingham can’t stop Ballage and Dae Hunter, it won’t be a very happy banner-raising night.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Drew Wells (ARL)
Isaiah Winstead and Sal Canella have been staples in a quick-pop Arlington passing game that’s built on the success of the run game. With that said, 11 different receivers have logged catches in this offense. They find room and execute well. Birmingham’s offense has ten players with catches in their offense, but none have more than 40 yards over two weeks.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Deon Cain had a great Week 2 game, and Jace Sternberger might be slowly being added to the Stallions’ game plan. However, Isaiah Winstead, Sal Cannella and company have been doing a great job catching for Perez. Even the two guys in the backfield have made slight contributions to the passing game. The Stallions’ defense will need to stand tall against this Renegade receiving corps.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Offensive Line
Drew Wells (ARL)
This is a short evaluation. The Renegades offensive line has been firing on all cylinders, supporting the run and pass very well. Birmingham came into the year with a line perceived as the best in the league. That hasn’t panned out so far this year.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Arlington has a way better run game and a quarterback who has more time to throw. You can talk about talented offensive linemen all day, but if you can’t produce in those two stats, then you ain’t nothing! The Stallions have given up eight sacks this year while the Renegades quarterback was brought down behind the line on three occasions.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Defensive Line
Drew Wells (ARL)
While the Arlington defense has been impressive, they have played two abysmal offenses to start the season. This will be their first test of the year, with Corral seeming to provide a spark when he is in the game for Birmingham. There are definitely holes in both defenses, however. It’s hard to call this one, so I will go with a “push” here.
Advantage: Push
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Both teams have four sacks to their credit heading into this game. The Arlington run game could soften the Stallions’ front end up, but if they cause significant pressure, it could be a long day in the office for Perez and crew. In the racing business, when it’s too close to call, we call it a dead-heat!
Advantage: Push
Linebackers
Drew Wells (ARL)
Both squads sport excellent LB duos behind their defensive lines. Both sets of linebackers make plays in different ways, and both are absolute UNITS when on the field. There is not much discernible difference here, so a “push” seems to be in order here as well.
Advantage: Push
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Both Stallion linebackers are sitting 1st and 3rd in team tackles. Wherever the ball is, Kyahva Tezino and Tae Crowder seem to be not far behind. They combine for 27 total tackles, and Crowder has a great tackle for a loss of four yards. Slowing down the Arlington run game will be hard, but these two should be up for the challenge. On the other side, Donald Payne leads Arlington with 14 tackles as well. Charlie Thomas is second with 8. Both linebacker corps are solid, but I am giving the slight edge to Birmingham.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Defensive Backs
Drew Wells (ARL)
In my estimation, these are the two best defensive backfields in the league. They are tightly matched in virtually every statistical category. Birmingham’s secondary let a few plays go in their opener against D.C., so it seems to me there may be a small crack in the armor here. I don’t think it is entirely significant, however. The Stallions’ entire team has been on the rise after that stinker, while Arlington’s squad has been consistent. I lean Arlington here, but there are lots of unknowns somehow between the two best at this position league-wide.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
The Stallions have a pair of interceptions this year compared to Arlington’s one. Its a minor difference two-games in but its something I can’t ignore. Birmingham also has the most passes defended is tied with Arlington with 16 breakups. Both teams have given up a decent amount of yards in the air, but both have what I call a “bend, don’t break” defense. I like Birmingham’s a bit better in this match-up.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Win and Score Predictions
Drew Wells (ARL)
Advantage Count: Arlington Renegades (4), Birmingham Stallions (1), Push (2)
Arlington has been one of the two best teams in the league so far this season (along with the Battlehawks in St. Louis). The problem with that logical perception is that both teams they have played so far have a room in the basement of the league. Birmingham has played D.C. and Michigan, and although they got routed against D.C. they bounced right back last week. They still haven’t been really impressive, but I believe that their resurgence continues. The advantage count here is deceptive. Birmingham, 20-18.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Advantage Count: Arlington Renegades (3), Birmingham Stallions (3), Push (1)
This game could easily be a championship preview, and hopefully it turns out that way. I think both teams will have strong outings from their defense, and it will come down to the wire. Birmingham, 17-13.
Betting Predictions
Line: Stallions (-3) O/U: 40.5
Drew Wells (ARL)
I think we may see some strong defensive performances shake up the way these two teams are seen this season. The defenses will show out, but I think Arlington may struggle with their first real test this year. Give me the under, as Arlington doesn’t let Birmingham cover in a tight one.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
A line of -3 means that Vegas believes this game would be a tie if played on a neutral site. However, this game will be played in Alabama in front of a crowd that has been waiting since last season to see their boys play at home. Oh, and by the way, it’s banner raising night… Yeah, I’ll take the -3 on Birmingham. I would hit the under on 40.5 because I think both defenses will play great.