By: Amirah Razman (STL) and Drew Wells (DC)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
Week 3 of the UFL season is upon us, and we have an exciting match-up of two undefeated teams on the docket this week. DC goes up against St. Louis this Sunday, and both teams are looking stronger than ever. But only one team can win – who will remain undefeated by the end of the weekend?
Quarterbacks
Amirah Razman (STL)
There’s yet to be one thing that Manny Wilkins can’t do. His deep ball continues to be a threat, and there’s no stopping him when he has the ball. Wilkins threw for 162 yards with 12 completions and 57 rushing yards in last week’s game against San Antonio. It’s clear that Wilkins is becoming more comfortable under Phil McGeoghan’s offense and is willing to take more shots downfield. Wilkins has played the Defenders before. In week 8 of last season he started the game that propelled the Battlehawks to their first playoff berth.
With Wilkins’ deep ball threat downfield and ability to scramble in critical moments, it’s evident that he can show up when it matters the most. Ta’amu, on the other hand, has also made some positive strides. However, he does have his struggles. Ta’amu was sacked once last week against Memphis in a defense-heavy game. He does struggle with maintaining the ball at times, and going to St. Louis this week could show more of his weaknesses. Wilkins will have the home crowd raucous as he continues to be a strong force in the Battlehawks’ offense. St. Louis gets the advantage here.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Drew Wells (DC)
It’s a battle of the league’s two leading passers. Manny Wilkins has looked very dynamic, and Jordan Ta’Amu has really done well for the Defenders. There is a critical difference between the two: rushing ability. Wilkins is one of THREE players on that offense with over 100 years on the year. Add that to his passing success, and defenses have a damn hard time keeping not just him, but that entire offense in check. Ta’Amu is good in his own right, but he doesn’t give the Defenders that added dimension that Wilkins does for the Battlehawks.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Running Backs
Amirah Razman (STL)
Oh, what would St. Louis do without Jacob Saylors? Much of St. Louis’ run-heavy offense can be attributed to Saylors, who has outperformed his counterparts every week. Last week against San Antonio, Saylors recorded 46 yards and 3 touchdowns and ran a route in between several SA defenders to punch in STL’s first touchdown of the game. Saylors is a defender’s worst nightmare, and running through defenders is something that comes naturally. Of course, props goes out to Gary Jennings as well — he was responsible for a huge reception that took the Battlehawks all the way to the 29-yard line (that same drive ended in a touchdown for STL).
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Drew Wells (DC)
Both of these teams sport a very effective run game. D.C. has two rushers in the 90+ yard club on the season. I mentioned above in the QB breakdown, however, that there are three 100+ yard rushers in St. Louis. When you have a QB who leads an effective passing game while punishing the other team with his legs, it leads to a precarious defensive situation for the opposition.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Amirah Razman (STL)
It’s been mostly Jacob Saylors’ show this season, as the reigning OPOY Hakeem Butler and second-year WR Jahcour Pearson have been mostly quiet this season. Yes, Wilkins has been targeting them, but it’s looking very likely that he is more comfortable with a more versatile and dependable runner to move the ball forward. Butler, Pearson, and TE Jake Sutherland are huge playmakers when given the opportunity, so hopefully they’ll get more reps this week. However, given the lack of significant plays by the trio, DC gets the advantage.
Advantage: DC Defenders
Drew Wells (DC)
While Jahcour Pearson and Hakeem Butler are established studs at their positions, they haven’t been required in terms of necessity of function for the St. Louis offense. That said, the Battlehawks still get chunk plays through the air. The Defenders have been very balanced so far this year, with Ty Scott and Chris Rowland both being over 100 yards on the season so far. So has St. Louis, with Wilkins being the overall offensive catalyst at QB. The Defenders have the better performances out wide, but it is a very close call.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Offensive Line
Amirah Razman (STL)
It was a slow start for STL’s offense last week, but it also didn’t take long for them to find their groove early in the first quarter. The Knights of Colombo have clearly allowed Manny Wilkins to be more comfortable in the pocket and take more downfield shots, which continued to be the case last week. DC struggled a lot offensively last week, barely scraping past Memphis. Stakes are higher as both teams renew their long-time rivalry, so DC’s offense might wake up. However, STL’s offensive unit has proven week after week that what they have works.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Drew Wells (DC)
As my colleague points out, the Battlehawks offense struggled to start the game last week. It didn’t matter, though, as they turned it up and ran over and away from their opponent. This week will be a much more difficult task against a defensive line that has been dynamite through the first two weeks. We’ll find out if either offensive line is for real, as St. Louis has 7 sacks on their own account this year. I give the edge to the Battlehawks here based on previous performance, but this is a close one as well.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Defensive Line
Amirah Razman (STL)
Another part of St. Louis’ success this season has been their D-line. The past two weeks, their defense has made some critical stops, which keeps opposing offenses from doing much when they’re on the field. They’ve only allowed 15 points so far this season (1st in the league), 7 sacks, and 3 interceptions. St. Louis’ defense leads the league in overall defensive stats, and the momentum will only continue. However, don’t count out DC just yet. DC’s defense has come in hot this season and are 3rd in the league overall. Their defense also came in handy in their Week 1 victory over the reigning champion Birmingham Stallions. There should be a strong showing from both defenses this weekend.
Advantage: Push
Drew Wells (DC)
Because of the perceived gulf in competition faced so far, I tend to lean on statistical productivity on the defensive side of the ball. Both teams are very good at getting to the quarterback, but there is a different stat that helps paint the picture of the defensive line’s impact on their overall defense. That stat is tackles-for-loss (TFL). St. Louis boasts seven sacks this season against eight for D.C, but no other TFLs to go with them. The Defenders have 6 other TFLs on the season, having played better competition so far. Who has the better defense overall could possibly be up for debate, but based on stats I lean toward D.C. having the better DL group.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Linebackers
Amirah Razman (STL)
Pita Taumoepenu is a DOG on the field, and it shows. Last week, he put up some great pressure on San Antonio’s offensive tackles and has contributed a lot to stopping the run fairly quickly this season. He can go full-ham on someone (to the point where he’ll get penalized — oops). Willie Harvey and Chris Garrett have also made themselves well-known. If there’s one thing (among many) that STL can proudly boast, it’s having a consistent and reliable linebacker room capable of stopping anything in its sights.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Drew Wells (DC)
In the first few weeks, St. Louis really flexed superior run defense. D.C. has done the same, and the LB corps has been a huge part for both teams. I keep going back to the same thing, however… opponent quality. St. Louis played a couple of teams who were either non-commital about their run game, or absolutely disregard the run by philosophy. D.C. played two teams with average (at worst) running games and very good backs. Pair that with the aggression of a Gregg Williams defense, and you have something special in D.C. It will be interesting to see if Blake Williams brings the aggression of his father as defensive coordinator. All things considered, I think the Defenders have the better LBs.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Defensive Backs
Amirah Razman (STL)
I’ve been a STL Battlehawks fan for 3 years. I don’t think I’ve seen a defense as strong as this year’s, and their DB room of Kameron Kelly, Lukas Denis, and Brandon Sebastian is no different. Sebastian is credited for a crazy interception against San Antonio last week, and he has already put up 6 tackles this year. Denis also has an interception under his belt, which happened in week 1. Kelly hasn’t had an interception yet, but he also has 6 tackles this year. This DB room is like no other, and with Ta’amu’s struggles under pressure along with the Defenders’ red zone struggles, this week might be tough.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Drew Wells (DC)
If I am going to lean on statistics in the front seven analyses, I need to stick to my guns and admit that the better secondary play has been on the side of St. Louis. Yes, the opponent quality is still a feature here, but three interceptions in two games (compared to none for D.C.) really does paint a picture. The Battlehawks also sport five more pass break-ups than the Defenders so far.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Win and Score Predictions
Amirah Razman (STL)
Advantage Count: St. Louis Battlehawks (5), DC Defenders (1), Push (1)
The classic Battlehawks/Defenders rivalry couldn’t have come at a better time. Both teams undefeated, and both teams having some strong assets. The Battlehawks have come up big offensively, but this week, they’re dealing with DC’s defense, who has been strong all season. I think both defenses will be put to work, which is why I don’t anticipate a high-scoring game. However, the Battlehawks’ continued success with downfield passes, runs, defensive stops and pass protection will have them on top. St. Louis, 17-12.
Drew Wells (DC)
Advantage Count: St. Louis Battlehawks (4), D.C. Defenders (3), Push (0)
There is one question that will determine how this plays out: Will the Defenders be able to stop Wilkins? If new defensive coordinator Blake Williams is cut from his father’s cloth, we’ll see a capable spy on Wilkins. Will that be enough? I’m not so sure. Both of these defenses are incredibly salty, but Manny Wilkins is an absolute X-factor. When I see a player that can take over games at QB, I lean toward them almost every time. Still, both offenses are potent. I don’t see a shootout happening, but I do think there will be several TDs scored. St. Louis, 26-18.
Betting Predictions
Line: Battlehawks (-5.5) O/U: 39.5
Amirah Razman (STL)
The Battlehawks will cover the spread. Take the under… there could be a lot of points scored, but I anticipate there will be a heavy amount of defensive plays that will quell any possibility of the over happening.
Drew Wells (DC)
I think the Battlehawks cover. Smart money is on the under, but this one has a chance to light up the scoreboard. (There could potentially be good money made on an over bet here, however.)