By: Trey Colbeck (BHM) and Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
Welcome to Week 2 in the UFL, as the Stallions take on the Panthers! The Stallions’ effort last week left a lot to be desired. This week they are on the road again, and it will be a big test as they face the only team in the USFL Conference to earn a win in week 1: The Michigan Panthers. It’s going to be the Panthers’ home opener, as they are coming off a strong 26-12 win over the Memphis Showboats. Which team will win, and who do we think holds the advantages in this match-up of USFL giants? Here are our takes:
Quarterbacks
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
According to the Practice Injury Report, Alex McGough has been dealing with a left quad injury, but he has continued to be a full participant in practice. He will need to be at his best in week 2 as he is coming off a less-than-desirable game where he earned the Donkey of the Game in my recap article. He completed 10 of 23 attempts and threw for 89 yards. McGough surprisingly found the endzone once on Sunday, but he also threw the ball to the other team once. On the other side, Bryce Perkins completed 16 of 19 and threw for 163 yards. Perkins also threw one touchdown in week 1, but he protected the ball a bit better than McGough.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Bryce Perkins took full command in Week 1—16-of-19 passing, two total touchdowns, and not a single turnover. He played with confidence and made the right decisions all game long. On the flip side, Alex McGough looked shaky and couldn’t finish drives in D.C. Michigan’s got the hotter hand and the more dynamic QB right now.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Running Backs
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
McGough did most of the running for Birmingham last week as he picked up 84 of the team’s 122 rushing yards. Ricky Person Jr. rushed for 29 yards himself and averaged 4.8 a carry. Michigan running backs Nate McCrary and Matthew Colburn combined for 66 rushing yards. The Panthers put together 95 yards on the ground, which helped them win the game. The Stallions will have to utilize their men in the backfield better this week if they want any chance of coming out on top.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers.
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Matthew Colburn II and Nate McCrary handled the carries for Michigan in Week 1 and did their jobs well, Colburn ran with control and McCrary helped close the game out late. For Birmingham, it was Alex McGough who led the team in rushing with 84 yards from the QB spot. Ricky Person Jr. and C.J. Marable both have the ability to bounce back behind a more consistent blocking front. Michigan looked slightly more polished at the running position and Birmingham’s talent and versatility at the position keeps it close.
Advantage: Push
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
It was hard for the Stallions’ receivers to earn anything because McGough hardly got the ball out to them. Davion Davis led the team with only 28 yards. No other receiver had more than 13 yards, and only two receivers had two receptions! With tight end La’Michael Pettway on the Injured Reserve List and reigning All-UFL tight end, Jace Sternberger not being used at all, the tight end position is lacking. Michigan had four receivers catch for 35 yards or more. Marcus Simms led the team with 4 receptions for 53 yards.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Newcomer Malik Turner led Michigan in catches, Samson Nacua scored his first in the UFL, and Marcus Simms helped stretch the field with Cole Hikutini adding reliability at tight end. The Panther’s group played fast and in rhythm. Birmingham has talent in Deon Cain, Davion Davis, and Jordan Thomas, but struggled to get anything going—Davis led with just 2 catches for 28 yards as McGough was under pressure all night. Michigan’s unit was more productive and better connected in Week 1.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Offensive Line
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
The D.C. defence was all over McGough last week and sacked him 8 times. They couldn’t get any rhythm in the running game other than McGough running for his life at times. On the other side, Michigan gave up only 1 sack and rushed for 95 yards and even punched one into the endzone on the ground. I hate going too lopsided, but based on last week, the Michigan offense looked much better.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Michigan’s O line comes out of Week 1 looking sharp with no sacks, a clean pocket, and they moved the chains when they needed it in short yardage situations. They played with control and set the tone up front all game and Ryan Nelson was the highest graded offensive lineman in week one. On the other side, Birmingham’s line struggled to shield McGough from D.C. and couldn’t get much push in the run game. Michigan’s big boys up front dictated the pace. Birmingham was just trying to survive.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Defensive Line
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Even though Michigan got the opposing quarterback three times compared to Birmingham getting one, I think the position is closer than the stats appear. The Stallions gave up 86 rushing yards on 29 attempts, which averages to 3.0 yards a carry. Michigan gave up 69 yards on only 24 attempts, which comes out to 2.9 yards a carry. If the Michigan secondary can lock down the Birmingham receivers, McGough should be able to pick up yards with his legs on this Panthers defence. I also have a history with Michigan’s defensive tackle Garrett Marino. He’s a good player, but let’s just say he wasn’t a “fan favourite” up in the CFL.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Michigan’s front handled business in Week 1. Breeland Speaks didn’t put up big numbers, however he still drew attention. Kenny Willekes more than made up for it—6 total tackles and a sack, constantly creating pressure. Levi Bell was flying around, and the interior combo of Garrett Marino and Walter Palmore clogged things up all game. Birmingham’s line had moments—Perrion Winfrey and Willie Yarbary showed flashes—but as a whole, they got stopped in their tracks by D.C.’s front.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Linebackers
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
I was high on the Stallions’ linebackers last week, and I still am today. Tae Crowder led Birmingham’s defence with 11 total tackles. It shows that he was getting to the ball carrier often in the game. Michigan’s Frank Ginda was also involved in 11 tackles himself. It’s hard to separate these two, so let’s call it a dead-heat.
Advantage: Push
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Frank Ginda looked every bit like the 2023 DPOY version of himself, leading Michigan with 11 total tackles and flying to the ball on nearly every snap. White and Mutin added range and physicality, giving this group solid support behind Ginda. On Birmingham’s side, Quentin Crowder was active while leading the LB room in tackles, and Kyahva Tezino brings speed and toughness to the middle. It’s a strong unit for the Stallions, unfortunately Michigan’s linebackers played with more control and made high impact plays and don’t have Perkins’s legs to plan for.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Defensive Backs
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
If there was one silver lining for the Stallions, it would be that they only gave up 18 points, 12 of which were from the opposing kicker. However, they still gave up 211 yards in the air, which was the most given up by any team in week 1. So as Shania Twain says “Up, up, up, Can only go up from here,” but I’m not too confident in that this week. Birmingham had a few players in their secondary who were limited or did not participate in practice. Jojo Tillery was limited earlier in the week, and Kenny Robison Jr. did not participate on Tuesday. That’s two members of the Stallions’ secondary that could be out or playing hurt this week. To keep it short, Michigan had two picks and gave up fewer passing yards.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
This is one of the tighter match-ups and Michigan’s DBs made the plays that mattered in Week 1. Kai Nacua’s 80-yard pick-six was the turning point late, and he added four tackles on the day. Keni-H Lovely held his own in coverage while Adonis Alexander brought the BOOM. On the Birmingham side, Steven Gilmore looked sharp with 9 tackles, and Tre Norwood chipped in with 6. They were active, however they didn’t create a takeaway and gave up a few key completions when it counted. Michigan’s group finished stronger, and that’s what gives them the edge for now.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Win and Score Predictions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Advantage Count: Michigan Panthers (5), Birmingham Stallions (1), Push (1)
Most of my advantages are leaning towards Michigan solely based on last week’s performances. By no means do I think the Stallions are has terrible as they played last week, but this might not be the week they will prove themselves. Michigan, 24-13.
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Advantage Count: Michigan Panthers (6), Birmingham Stallions (0), Push (1)
Michigan looked sharp across the board in Week 1 — clean execution, no turnovers, and a defense that swarmed from start to finish. Bryce Perkins was calm in the pocket, efficient with the ball, and the Panthers didn’t give Memphis many chances to breathe. On the other side, Birmingham still has talent, but they didn’t look comfortable against D.C., especially up front. The offensive line struggled to protect, and the offense never really found a rhythm. Until that front settles in, it’s going to be tough for the Stallions to keep pace with a Michigan team that already looks like it’s hitting its stride. I don’t think this turns into a blowout, but I do see the Panthers taking control by the second quarter and gradually pulling away as the game wears on. Michigan, 27 – 17.
Betting Predictions
Line: Stallions (-1.5) O/U: 38.5
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
I am surprised the Stallions are favored even if it’s just by 1.5 points. Vegas wants to give Michigan points at home? COME ON MAN, TAKE THE +1.5 ON MICHIGAN! 38.5 is tough over/under. The combined score of these two teams last week was 37. However, I think both teams will fire a bit more this week so take the over!
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
This line’s tighter than I expected after what we saw in Week 1 so Michigan getting +1.5 at home with momentum? That’s value. Perkins looked composed, the defense made big plays, and the team didn’t turn the ball over. On the flip side, Birmingham’s offense still looked like it’s trying to find its footing. I’d take the over, as well.