By: Cory Lozier (HOU) and RJ Reid (SA)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
The halfway point of the regular season is upon us, as the (1-3) San Antonio Brahmas will take on the (1-3) Houston Roughnecks at the Alamodome. The Brahmas will be bringing the momentum of their week 4 win over the D.C. Defenders and looking for their second win of the season. After starting 0-3, the Brahmas concluded their road trip with a stunning upset over the previously undefeated DC Defenders.
Houston, also looking for their second win, is again coming into the week off a late-game loss. The way their offense was able to move with Jalen McClendon under center was very promising, however, giving the players (and fans) the confidence they’ve been missing.
This SHOULD be one of the most evenly stacked match-ups we’ve seen this season, and one you’re not going to want to miss! You can catch the game Sunday, April 27th on ESPN at 3 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. CT.
Quarterbacks
Cory Lozier (HOU)
QB Nolan Henderson got his first start of the season but went out early with a shoulder injury. His replacement was third string quarterback Jalan McClendon. In fact, let me rephrase that: Luckily for Houston, his replacement was third string quarterback Jalan McClendon. At this point I must assume that C.J. Johnson liked what he saw and will name McClendon as the starter. If so, this match-up becomes much closer, and harder to pick a winner for.
McClendon changed everything when he came in. The offense became very mobile, had big play capability, and were a threat in the passing game. The only thing I question is the comfortability of starting the next game and making last week’s performance repeatable. In contrast, Kellen Mond has been a reliable and important play-maker to the Brahmas offense. The one downside is sometimes he seems a little stiff in high pressure situations.
Advantage: Push
RJ Reid (SA)
The Brahmas’ quarterback play has surged since A.J. Smith stepped down as offensive coordinator. Kellen Mond completed 61% of his passes (18/29, 180 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) in a Week 3 loss to Michigan, showcasing improved decision-making. Against D.C., he hit a season-high 70% (15/21, 200 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) while scrambling for 25 yards, proving his dual-threat ability.
Houston’s quarterback situation stabilized with Jalen McClendon, who sparked the Roughnecks against Birmingham. He completed 22/31 passes (71%, 236 yards) and notched a rushing touchdown. While McClendon’s mobility adds flair, Mond’s experience against elite defenses tips the scales.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Running Backs
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Coach C.J. Johnson said it during last week’s press conference: “We HAVE to run the football better for any quarterback to be effective”. With the exception of one game, Houston has failed to establish any run threat whatsoever. They rushed for less than 70 yards and averaged only 4.3 yards a carry against the Stallions. The Roughnecks will be tested again this week. If McClendon can make the offense a threat in the pass game, it will help open up the running lanes. But until then I have to give the advantage the other way.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
RJ Reid (SA)
Anthony McFarland has been the Brahmas’ workhorse, averaging 62.5 yards per game despite a tough 55-yard outing against DC’s stout defense. Houston allowed 126 rushing yards to Birmingham, setting up McFarland for a rebound.
Houston’s run game faltered, with Jalen McClendon leading at 17 yards against the Stallions. San Antonio’s porous run defense (140 yards allowed per game) offers Houston a chance to find rhythm, but McFarland’s consistency prevails.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Cory Lozier (HOU)
I stand by my decision and statement since “The Shakedown” in week one. Houston has one of the deepest receiving corps in the league. The main thing that has been keeping everyone else from seeing it is the quarterback play. That changed last week, and the weapons at receiver were brought to life. For example, T.J. Vasher was able to show off his play-making ability. Justin Hall caught 6-of-9 targets for 58 yards, and (Keke) Chism hauled in 4-of-5. As a team they were moving the chains, sustaining drives, even finding the end zone.
Although Mond and the Brahmas know who to move their offense, they have one main contributor. Therefore, I don’t think San Antonio has the depth at receiver that the Roughnecks have.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
RJ Reid (SA)
Jacob Harris has emerged as Kellen Mond’s top target, hauling in 12 receptions for 150 yards this season. Early struggles limited the Brahmas’ receiving corps, but Mond’s recent accuracy has unlocked their potential. Jontre Kirklin, who racked up 400 yards in 2024, has been quiet (under 50 yards in 2025) but is poised for a breakout. Houston’s receivers, including former Brahmas Justin Hall and TJ Vasher, struggled with separation until Week 4, combining for 120 yards against Birmingham, including a few catches over 25 yards. San Antonio’s deeper talent gives them the edge.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Offensive Line
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The Roughnecks o-line has had their fair share of struggles through the first four weeks, but so have the Brahmas. The o-line of San Antonio has allowed more sacks and pressures overall. That said, they balance it out with being able to really open up the run lanes for former Pittsburgh Steeler Anthony McFarland. That is where the Roughnecks have struggled in comparison. There have been signs here and there, just not enough for them to edge this one out.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
RJ Reid (SA)
The Brahmas’ offensive line, which allowed 10 sacks in Weeks 1-3, turned a corner against DC’s league-leading pass rush, surrendering zero sacks. Run-blocking remains inconsistent, however, with under 100 team rushing yards against DC. With that said, the pass protection bodes well for Mond. Houston’s line protected McClendon adequately, allowing one sack against Birmingham, but their 16-point output reflects limited run-blocking. San Antonio’s recent improvement gives them a slight edge.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Defensive Line
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The defensive line in Houston desperately needs to find their week-to-week identity. One game they don’t give up a whole lot in the way of rush yards, other games they will give it all away. While some games they can generate a pass rush, other times it has had to come from the guys in the secondary. The Brahmas are very similar in this category. For both teams it’s about which line shows up that day.
Advantage: Push
RJ Reid (SA)
The Brahmas’ defensive line stepped up against DC, recording a sack while having two negated by penalties. However, their league-high 30 penalties this season paired with inconsistencies defending the rush highlight vulnerabilities.
Houston’s front, led by Rayshad Williams, showed discipline while holding Birmingham to 3.8 yards per carry. Allowing 280 yards per game (vs. San Antonio’s 310), Houston’s consistency earns the nod.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Linebackers
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Jordan Williams and Tavante Beckett are the reason San Antonio wins this position match-up. Both are in the top five in tackles, as well as the top ten in tackles-for-loss. They came up big for the Brahmas last week, and they seem to be a more productive unit than their opposition this week. Don’t get me wrong… Drew Lewis, Xavier Benson, and Marvin Moody are great, but they can disappear at times in-game. Not to mention, they exhibit the innate ability to miss open field tackles when it matters most. Each Houston linebacker alone has had a notable game or half, but they haven’t all played well at the same time. Again, it comes down to being consistent, and we just haven’t seen that from the Roughnecks linebacker unit.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
RJ Reid (SA)
San Antonio’s linebackers, including Tavante Beckett, struggled against D.C., allowing four straight scoring drives due to poor third-down defense. Houston’s unit, led by K.J. Hill, held Birmingham to 23 points, forcing two third-down stops of their own. Both groups excel against the run, but lack standout pass coverage.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Backs
Cory Lozier (HOU)
I’ve said it once and I will say it again, Houston’s DBs have been the shining star of this defense. Comparatively, they are the more well rounded aspect of the team and can do many things well. For example, their pass rush, pass deflections, and ability to create turnovers have all stood out for several weeks now. Leon O’Neal is going to be the biggest issue for Brahmas QB Kellen Mond. If anyone else can put on the pressure, Neal can be the ball hawk and keep generating takeaways. He’s also one the Brahmas quarterback is going to have to watch because they are not afraid to send him into the backfield, either. Another DB to keep in the back of your mind is CB Corn Elder. These two hard hitters are determined to create turnovers and get the defense off the field.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
RJ Reid (SA)
San Antonio’s secondary, allowing a league-worst 250 passing yards per game, was exposed by D.C.’s Jordan Ta’amu (292 yards). Houston’s Rayshad Williams snagged an interception, and Chris Odom added two pass breakups against Birmingham. Despite allowing 200 passing yards per game themselves, Houston’s play-making ability gives them the edge.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Win and Score Predictions
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Advantage Count: San Antonio Brahmas (3), Houston Roughnecks (2), Push (2)
I think Houston can take a step forward this week in terms of offense. Assuming McClendon gets the start, they should be able to move the ball pretty well against this Brahmas defense that’s given up 103 points and more yards than anyone in the league. But, no matter who the winner is, this game will be won on the backs of their defenses. I do expect the Brahmas to get the win at home. San Antonio, 24-18.
RJ Reid (SA)
Advantage Count: San Antonio Brahmas (4), Houston Roughnecks (2), Push (1)
The Brahmas have the home advantage at the Alamodome and a stronger rushing attack led by Anthony McFarland, which could exploit Houston’s run defense. The Roughnecks have a marginally better defense. Their recent loss to the Stallions exposed offensive limitations, scoring only 16 points despite a competitive effort. Historically, Houston leads the series 2-1, but San Antonio’s 2024 win (15-12) showed they can grind out close games. Given the Brahmas’ home field and rushing attack edge, they’re poised to keep this game tight, likely decided by a late field goal. San Antonio, 20-17.
Betting Predictions
Line: Brahmas (-3) O/U: 38.5
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Like I mentioned before, this may be the closest match-up / comparison of all the teams in the league. I believe San Antonio will get the win and cover the spread, with the over hitting.
RJ Reid (SA)
Lean toward San Antonio to cover the -3 spread at home, given their advantage in the rushing game. The under is a safe bet, as both defenses may keep scoring below 40 combined points.