By: Drew Wells
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
We’re at the halfway point of the season, where a match-up with playoff implications sees the D.C. Defenders visit the Arlington Renegades. Both sides sport high energy and efficiency on both sides of the ball, so this should be an instant classic!
Let’s see how this game looks from an analytical standpoint:
Quarterbacks
QBs Jordan Ta’Amu (DC) and Luiz Perez (ARL) both determine how their team’s games go offensively. Looking at total offense specifically, the teams are almost identical across their attacks. There is one stat that jumps out, however: Passing yards overall. The defenders boast over 200 yards more on the season through the air than does Arlington. That’s almost a full-game’s difference, and leads me to say that Ta’Amu has the upside advantage in the game.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Running Backs
In the rushing game, both squads are in a statistical dead-heat, both offensively, and defensively against it. Arlington’s Kalen Ballage and Dae Dae Hunter are very potent, while Abram Smith and Deon Jackson are effective runners in their own right. The difference here? Jordan Ta’Amu pulling the ball down and running presents an extra dimension to defend for Arlington that D.C.’s defense doesn’t have to face.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
This is an easy one… Both teams have wonderful receiving corps, headlined by both Sal Canella and Isaiah Winstead of Arlington, and Ty Scott and Chris Rowland of D.C. Even talent at receiver comes down to QB ability, and while both are very good, Ta’Amu still holds an advantage here.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Offensive Line
These offensive lines both put in some serious work. The run game is potent for both squads, but D.C. has only allowed three sacks on the year compared to Arlington’s eight. Pretty straightforward, here.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Defensive Line
These defensive lines are extremely talented! This position needs to be looked at alongside the linebacker position on both sides, because they really integrate heavily in aggressive schemes. Virtually even in TFLs and sacks, this is a push in my mind and will be fun to watch how they perform.
Advantage: Push
Linebackers
Similarly, this position group is a combined look for these teams in the front seven. Both teams sport absolute studs, with Momo Sanogo leading the D.C. middle, and Donald Payne running things for Arlington. This is a virtual push, too. I will note, however, that D.C. boasts the more aggressive defensive approach of the two.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Backs
This is a clear advantage for Arlington, in my mind. While there is a comparable amount of interceptions caused between them, Arlington has double (30-15) the PBUs on the year that the Defenders have. Ajene Harris and Joe Powell form the spine of an elite secondary, which could very well turn this match-up on it’s head.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Win and Score Prediction
Advantage Count: D.C. Defenders (4), Arlington Renegades (1), Push (2)
The result of this game FIRMLY depends on how well Arlington can contain the legs of Jordan Ta’Amu. If they can do that well, then Arlington has a good shot at pulling out the Dub. If not, it could be a long day.
Because both run defenses are as stout as can be, I actually like Arlington to win this one. It’s much harder for a QB to scramble when he doesn’t have an effective run game supporting his play in that game. This will likely be true for both teams, in my opinion. Limited Ta’Amu run opportunities means the nasty Arlington secondary can fly around and make plays. Arlington, 25-23.
Betting Predictions
Line: Renegades (-3.5) O/U: 39.5
I doubt that Arlington covers the spread here. I would hammer the over in this one, however, Despite dominant defenses on both sides, the offenses are still prone to making huge and timely plays.