By: Trey Colbeck (BHM) and Cory Lozier (HOU)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
Week 7 of the 2025 UFL season features a high-stakes clash as the Houston Roughnecks travel to face the Birmingham Stallions at Protective Stadium. Houston looks to keep their momentum going and Birmingham aims to solidify their place atop the standings.
In addition, this match-up carries major playoff implications. The Stallions, led by Matt Corral and Case Cookus, have been firing on all cylinders offensively. Meanwhile the Roughnecks will rely on their aggressive defense to slow things down. As two teams with contrasting styles collide, expect a physical, strategic battle that could shape the USFL Conference race.
Quarterbacks
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The quarterback duel between Birmingham’s Matt Corral and Houston’s Jalan McClendon adds an intriguing layer to this Week 7 showdown. Corral has shown flashes of explosiveness, throwing for 648 yards and 4 touchdowns on 51 completions out of 95 attempts, though his 4 interceptions highlight some inconsistency. On the other side, McClendon has been a steadier presence for the Roughnecks, completing 64-of-91 passes for 556 yards. While he’s only found the end zone once through the air, his 2 interceptions suggest he’s done a better job protecting the football. This match-up pits Corral’s aggressive style against McClendon’s efficiency. In reality, whichever quarterback can limit mistakes and capitalize in the red zone may end up tipping the scales in their team’s favor.
Advantage: Push
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Case Cookus has been finding the end zone with ease lately. He has four touchdowns and only one interception, even if he hasn’t been lighting it up with yardage. Jalon McClendon has been playing well, but he hasn’t found the end zone at the same rate as his counterpart. Stallions have the edge here in Cookus as they are fully healthy.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Running Backs
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Zaquandre White enters Week 7 with 201 rushing yards on 56 attempts, 2 touchdowns, and a long run of 23 yards, averaging just 34 yards per game. He’ll face a tough test against a Birmingham defensive front known for living in the backfield and stopping runners before they hit the line. White’s ability to create yardage after contact will be key if Houston wants to avoid becoming one-dimensional. On the other side, Birmingham’s Ricky Person Jr. and C.J. Marable have combined for 306 yards on 93 carries but have struggled with efficiency and ball security, losing one fumble. They’ll go up against a Roughnecks defense that has made a habit of forcing turnovers and swinging momentum. With both ground games looking to find consistency, the team that wins the battle in the trenches could take control of this game.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Zaquandre White (Hou) and Ricky Person Jr. (BHM) are only three yards apart in rushing yards this season. Both guys have also punched it into the end zone twice. Last time these teams faced, Person Jr. didn’t play, but he has been slowly getting better each week. I think the potential of Person Jr. is way higher than his counterpart.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The Birmingham Stallions’ receiving corps has been a major force this season, totaling 1,163 yards and 9 touchdowns. Still leading the charge is Deon Cain, a top-4 receiver in the league, who brings explosive downfield potential with over 250 yards on just 16 catches. Not to mention, Birmingham’s big-play capability will challenge a Houston defense that thrives on creating turnovers. The Roughnecks, ranked second in interceptions and first in interception return yards, will counter with a deep and balanced receiver rotation. Kere Chism and Justin Hall offer steady hands, while T.J. Vasher provides a vertical threat with his size and athleticism. With both teams ranked in the top four in pass defense, this match-up could come down to who makes the fewest mistakes through the air—and which receiving group can find separation against elite coverage.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Deon Cain, Davion Davis, and Cade Johnson have been putting up big numbers for the Stallions. Anyone in the Birmingham receiving group can have an explosive play that alters the game. You also can’t forget Jace Sternberger, who has been heating up lately and is becoming just as dangerous as he was last season.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Offensive Line
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The offensive line battle will be a key factor in this tightly contested Week 7 match-up. Birmingham’s front has powered the offense to 606 rushing yards while allowing 15 sacks—solid in run support but occasionally vulnerable in pass protection. On the other side, Houston’s offensive line has been more balanced, helping produce 512 rushing yards while surrendering only 8 sacks, showing stronger pass protection despite less ground production. With both defenses capable of applying pressure and disrupting rhythm, the offensive lines will play a pivotal role in keeping their quarterbacks upright and establishing control at the line of scrimmage. If Birmingham’s line can clean up pass protection and continue opening running lanes, they could dominate time of possession. But if Houston’s more secure protection holds strong, it may give Jalan McClendon the edge in a game that’s shaping up to be won in the trenches.
Advantage: Push
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Birmingham has given up almost twice as many sacks this season as Houston. From an eye test, Houston’s offensive line has been controlling the trenches better it just hasn’t been enough to win more games.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Defensive Line
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Of course the Birmingham Stallions boast one of the league’s most dominant defensive lines, led by defensive ends Bradlee Anae and Ronnie Perkins. This disruptive duo has combined for 23 solo tackles, with 11 coming behind the line of scrimmage, and 7.5 sacks—consistently wreaking havoc in opposing backfields. Their ability to collapse pockets and blow up run plays has been a driving force behind Birmingham’s elite defense. In stark contrast, Houston’s defensive line has struggled all season, ranking second worst in rush yards allowed with 729. The Roughnecks have had trouble controlling the trenches, often allowing opposing backs to find lanes with ease. With Anae and Perkins setting the tone up front, the Stallions’ defense could dominate the line once again. Also, helping put the pressure on Houston’s offense to find answers quickly or risk getting overwhelmed.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Both teams are pretty similar in the sacks category, as the Stallions have 11 this year compared to Houston’s 10. Both defensive lines can put the opposing offense in a bigger hole. Birmingham has the best rush defense in the league, which pushes the needle more their way. With only 456 rushing yards given up compared to Houston’s 729. Although Houston has more sacks, a good chunk comes from the linebacker core.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Linebackers
Cory Lozier (HOU)
In fact, the linebacker match-up between the Houston Roughnecks and Birmingham Stallions highlights two very different styles of play. Houston’s linebackers have been more active in run support. While, racking up 86 total tackles and 15 tackles for loss—showing their ability to shoot gaps and disrupt plays in the backfield. However, they’ve contributed just 2 pass deflections, indicating limited impact in coverage. Meanwhile, Birmingham’s linebacker unit has recorded fewer tackles at 60, with 9 for loss, but they’ve made their mark in the passing game with 5 pass deflections and 2 forced fumbles. The Stallions’ group may not rack up stats as quickly, but they’ve shown a knack for creating momentum-shifting plays. This contrast sets up an interesting dynamic—Houston’s linebackers bring downhill aggression, while Birmingham’s offer versatility and play-making in space.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
The Roughnecks’ linebackers have been able to bring pressure on opposing quarterbacks all year, and they contribute to the team’s sack totals. Birmingham’s linebackers are pretty solid as well, and they lead the charge in tackles. They fly all over the field and make big plays when needed. This is another tough one-possession battle that could be the difference in this game.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Backs
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The Houston Roughnecks’ defensive backs have emerged as the heartbeat of their defense, consistently making game-changing plays. Whether it’s breaking up passes, delivering punishing hits, or forcing turnovers, this unit thrives on disrupting opposing offenses. They’re ranked second in interceptions, fourth in forced fumbles, and lead the league in total turnovers created—a testament to their aggressive, play-making mentality. Cornerback Armani Marsh has been a standout, tying for the league lead in forced fumbles, showcasing both ball awareness and physicality.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
The Roughnecks are tied for second in interceptions this season with six, but they are one of four teams to have given up over 1000 yards so far this season. On the other hand, Birmingham has only four interceptions and has given up the second most passing yards at 1174. One saving grace for Birmingham’s defensive back is that they get stingy near the goal line, as the Stallions have a league low three passing touchdowns given up. This is one that is too tight for me.
Advantage: Push
Win and Score Predictions
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Advantage Count: Birmingham Stallions (3), Houston Roughnecks (2), Push (2)
Houston’s defense faces a major challenge this week against Birmingham’s explosive offense, which can strike quickly and punish missed assignments. Not only will they need to stay disciplined, they need to force key stops to keep the game within reach. On the other hand, Houston’s offense has enough weapons to make noise—if they can play clean, mistake-free football. Of course, turnovers or stalled drives could prove costly against a Stallions team that thrives on capitalizing. Still, I believe this game will be closer than most expect. Houston’s defense has shown the ability to create turnovers, and if the offense can click early, they have a real shot to push Birmingham to the wire. Don’t count them out. Birmingham, 20-17.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Advantage Count: Birmingham Stallions (4), Houston Roughnecks (1), Push (2)
It seems to me that this should be another Stallions victory, but it will likely be another close one. The Stallions had a good win last week, and they need to continue the momentum as the playoffs approach. Cookus should be even better with another week of practice, and doesn’t seem to be laboring from any injury issues. All the pressure is on Houston as they need to win to keep pace with the top teams in the USFL Conference. The last time they faced, it was a seven-point game, but I see this one being a bit closer. Birmingham, 28-24.
Betting Predictions
Line: Stallions (-5.5) O/U: 37.5
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The Birmingham Stallions should come away with the win over the Houston Roughnecks, but it won’t be by much. While they’re the stronger team overall, I don’t expect them to cover the -5.5 point spread, as Houston’s defense can keep things tight. With both teams boasting top-tier pass defenses and capable secondaries, points will be hard to come by—making the under of 37.5 the smart play.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Both these teams can put up points, so I’d hit the over on the 37.5. The spread of 5.5 is the tough one, but I think this game should end very close and could even come down to the last drive. My gut says to take Houston (+5.5).
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[…] Houston Roughnecks faced a stunning defeat to the Birmingham Stallions ( check out the previous “Shakedown”) on Sunday, May 11, 2025, at Protective Stadium. Despite leading for much of the game, […]