By: R. J. Reid (SA) and Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
The Brahmas’ long-awaited home opener ended in disaster after being blown out by the Houston Roughnecks last week. The Brahmas go back on the road as they face the defending UFL Champion Birmingham Stallions. The last time these two teams faced off, the Stallions shutout the Brahmas to win the first UFL Championship. We at Alternative Football Network bring you a quick look inside at who may have the advantage at each position group in this weekend’s game. You can watch the game on Sunday, May 4th on FOX at 4 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. CT.
Quarterbacks
R. J. Reid (SA)
In Week 5 against the Roughnecks, Kellen Mond had an unspectacular performance, throwing for 35 yards and one interception. He was pulled in the third quarter in favor of Jarrett Guarantano, who performed no better. Guarantano finished the game going 6-of-15 for 29 yards and an interception. In total, the Brahmas managed only 41 yards of passing offense. The offense struggled overall, scoring only 3 points against Houston. The Brahmas’ new system under coach Payton Pardee emphasizes control and efficiency, but Mond and Guarantano were unable to generate any production in this loss.
With Matt Corral injured, Case Cookus started for the Stallions against the Showboats. Cookus was effective, going 15-of-33 for 145 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. His accuracy was under 50%, but the Stallions’ offense scored 20 points in regulation, indicating a decent output despite the overtime loss. Cookus, a former Showboats QB, has a solid arm but has struggled with field awareness and taking sacks (led the league with 20 sacks in 2024). However, Birmingham’s offensive line and coaching from Skip Holtz help mitigate these issues.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Case Cookus did alright in his season debut last week, but fell short of getting the victory. With another full week of practice he should be a lot better in Week 6, but I have my reservations about this team. However, the Brahmas haven’t found an answer in many departments, including QB.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Running Backs
R. J. Reid (SA)
Anthony McFarland has emerged as the workhorse for San Antonio, but in Week 5 against the Roughnecks, their ground game was stifled. McFarland rushed for 40 yards, but the team’s total offensive output was poor, with only 3 points scored. The Brahmas’ strategy relies on early ground control to open up the passing game, but Houston’s defense, ranked second against the run (allowing 86.0 yards per game), shut them down. McFarland and company are versatile, but their effectiveness depends on offensive line play, which faltered.
The Stallions’ rushing attack is a strength. In Week 5 against the Showboats, Ricky Person Jr. rushed for 41 yards, but Cookus was the leading rusher with 83 yards. The Stallions averaged 93.3 rushing yards per game through Week 4, but their performance against Memphis’ sixth-ranked run defense (124.0 yards allowed per game) maintained their physical, balanced approach, even in a loss.
Birmingham’s running backs are more productive and consistent, with a league-leading rushing attack supported by a strong offensive line. The Brahmas’ backs were ineffective against Houston, and their reliance on the ground game didn’t translate to success, giving Birmingham a clear edge.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Even though it doesn’t translate to many points, Anthony McFarland is third in the league in rushing yards. He hasn’t gotten into the end zone yet this season, but he has been a small blessing for this team. I expected more from Ricky Person Jr. and the other Birmingham running backs, but I haven’t seen any flair from them.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
R. J. Reid (SA)
Brahmas (Limited Data): The provided data doesn’t highlight specific receivers for the Brahmas in Week 5, but their offensive struggles (3 points) suggest the passing game was ineffective. Without key playmakers like Donald De La Haye (on IR) and with Mond’s modest 120 passing yards, the Brahmas’ receivers likely failed to create separation or capitalize on opportunities against Houston’s secondary, which lacks stars like Markel Roby and Colby Richardson.
The Stallions have a talented receiving corps. In Week 5, Cookus connected with Jordan Thomas and Marlon Williams for touchdowns. Birmingham’s receivers are dynamic and proven, with multiple players capable of explosive plays, as evidenced by their two touchdown passes against Memphis. The Brahmas’ passing game showed no such capability against Houston, making this a lopsided matchup.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
It’s hard to fully analyze the Brahmas’ receivers because they hardly get the ball. Jacob Harris led the team with only 24 yards last week. Harris is still fourth in the league with 247 receiving yards, but he has not found the end zone yet. On the Stallion’s side, they had two players with more receiving yards than Harris in Deon Cain and Jordan Thomas, but not by much. Both squads are talented here, but recent performances make it tough to evaluate advantages. I lean toward the Stallions.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Offensive Line
R. J. Reid (SA)
The Brahmas’ offensive line struggled significantly in Week 5, failing to protect Mond and Guarantano or open lanes for the running game. Houston’s defensive front dominated the trenches, limiting San Antonio to 3 points. The lack of a cohesive ground game was due to poor run-blocking, and both quarterback’s modest output indicates subpar pass protection.
Birmingham’s offensive line is a strength, providing Cookus with better protection than he had in Memphis (where he was sacked 20 times in 2024). Against the Showboats, the Stallions’ line supported a balanced attack, allowing 26 points in regulation despite Memphis’ defensive front. Birmingham’s offensive line is more effective at both run-blocking and pass protection, as shown by their sustained offensive output against Memphis. The Brahmas’ line was overmatched by Houston, indicating they’ll struggle against Birmingham’s aggressive defensive front.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Both teams have given up a lot of sacks this season. The Stallions allow their quarterbacks to get sacked an average of 2.2 times a game while the Brahmas average 2.4. The Stallions and Brahmas are also close with the number of tackles for loss given up at 24 and 25, respectfully. This battle is a close one, but an important one.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Line
R. J. Reid (SA)
San Antonio’s defensive line, was a strength. However, in Week 5 the Brahmas allowed 27 points. They couldn’t disrupt Jalan McClendon consistently. Houston’s offense, ranked last in scoring (76 points through four games), still managed to dominate, indicating a potential off-day for the Brahmas’ front.
Birmingham’s defensive line is formidable. They allowed 24 points which is uncharacteristic for a unit ranked second in scoring defense (13.8 points per game through four games). Birmingham’s line is strong but allowed Memphis to stay competitive, suggesting San Antonio’s pass rush could challenge Cookus, who has a history of taking sacks. Despite this, San Antonio’s defensive unit as a whole has dramatically underperformed all season long.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Both teams are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to sacks. However, Birmingham has twice as many as San Antonio’s four. Birmingham has also given up the fewest rushing yards and least rushing touchdowns in the league halfway through the season. Contrarily, San Antonio has given up the most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Linebackers
R. J. Reid (SA)
The Brahmas’ linebacker corps wasn’t a highlight in Week 5, and their defense as a whole struggled, allowing 27 points to a low-scoring Houston offense. San Antonio’s schemes typically rely on aggressive linebackers, but the lack of standout performances against McClendon’s dual-threat ability proved they were outmaneuvered.
Birmingham’s linebackers are a strength. Against Memphis, they limited the Showboats’ ground game (78.3 yards per game average) but allowed Dresser Winn to keep the game close, indicating some coverage lapses.
Birmingham’s linebackers are more productive and impactful, with Kyahva Tezino and Tae Crowder among the UFL’s best. The Brahmas’ unit underperformed against Houston, giving Birmingham the edge in run defense and playmaking.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
There is something about the Birmingham line-backing corps this season. Kyahva Tezino and Tae Crowder have been running all over the field and making huge tackles. It could mean the offense is breaking through the defensive line too easily, but at least they are getting stopped there. The Stallions’ defense shows up when it needs to, and it starts with this group.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Defensive Backs
R. J. Reid (SA)
The Brahmas’ secondary struggled against Houston’s Jalan McClendon, who orchestrated a 27-3 rout. Houston’s receiving corps, exploited San Antonio’s back end, despite the one interception thrown by McClendon.
Birmingham’s secondary was depleted in Week 5, missing Kenny Robinson, Mario Goodrich, and Faion Hicks. They allowed Winn to connect on key plays, including a game-tying drive. The Stallions’ secondary is typically strong but was exposed in this loss. San Antonio’s secondary, despite their struggles has been able to produce turnovers. Birmingham’s injury-riddled secondary underperformed against a rookie QB, suggesting vulnerabilities San Antonio could exploit if protected.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Both teams are among the worst when it comes to giving up passing yards. The Stallions sit at the bottom of the table with 1,020 yards allowed. Strangely, both teams are the league’s best when it comes to giving up passing touchdowns. Birmingham has given up only three this season, while San Antonio has allowed only one! (WHAT?!)
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Win and Score Predictions
R. J. Reid (SA)
Advantage Count: Birmingham Stallions (5), San Antonio Brahmas (1), Push (0)
Despite the Brahmas’ defensive potential, their offensive struggles against Houston (3 points) are concerning, especially against a Birmingham team that scored 20 points against a better Memphis defense. The Stallions’ balanced attack, led by Cookus, and their receivers, should exploit San Antonio’s offensive line and secondary weaknesses. Birmingham’s defense, while not perfect, is unlikely to allow another upset after the Memphis loss. Birmingham bounces back from their Week 5 loss, leveraging their offensive depth to outpace a Brahmas team struggling to find offensive rhythm. San Antonio’s defense keeps it competitive, but their inability to score consistently proves costly. Birmingham, 24-13.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Advantage Count: Birmingham Stallions (4), San Antonio Brahmas (2), Push (1)
Everything inside me says Birmingham has to win, right? God, I hope so since this week is a crucial match-up. It will all be on the shoulders of whoever starts under center. If it ends up being Cookus, I think he has it in him to be a starter in this league, but he just needs to prove it. Birmingham 20-14.
Betting Predictions
Line: Stallions (-9.5) O/U: 37.5
R. J. Reid (SA)
I have a strong conviction of taking the under 37.5. The defensive strengths of both teams, combined with San Antonio’s offensive woes and Birmingham’s inconsistent scoring, make a low total likely. With regards to the spread, I would take the Brahmas covering it. The spread is wide for a game where San Antonio’s defense can keep it close, but Birmingham’s overall edge makes the outright upset less likely.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
The Stallions should win this game easily, but -9.5 is a huge spread in any league. I think this game will be close and will have late dramatics. I’m taking San Antonio with the spread being what it is and the under at 37.5