By: Cory Lozier (HOU) and Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
A week three rematch is upon us, and with it comes a high-stakes showdown between two teams desperate to turn their seasons around. The Memphis Showboats (1-4) and the Houston Roughnecks (2-3) square off in a rematch that carries more weight than their records suggest. Despite slow starts, both squads have shown flashes of resilience and growth in recent weeks. With playoff hopes hanging by a thread, this match-up promises to be a true litmus test for how far each team will go.
Quarterbacks
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The quarterback play for both of these teams are finally trending upward. Dresser Winn came in for Memphis and put together quite the performance in his debut. That is also why I think Jalan McClendon’s experience and ability to handle adversity helps them edge out this category.
McClendon last week against the Brahmas completed 22-of-32 passes while throwing for 171 yards, and even got the run game going. More importantly the way the offense moves down the field with McClendon under center is completely different. They are finally able to get the defense off the field and dominate the time of possession while limiting turnovers. This has the makings to be a good.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The Memphis QB outlook changed drastically in Week 5 when Dresser Winn came out of nowhere to lead the Showboats in a massive upset win over the Stallions in Birmingham. He went 17 of 29 for 235 yards and a TD, then topped it off with an overtime sudden death pass to Dee Anderson to seal the deal. Best of all, he threw zero interceptions, unlike the Memphis QBs in their previous four losses. Houston’s Jalan McClendon finally got a chance to start, something I have been calling for since he was picked up by DC in the 2024 UFL season. The Roughnecks have looked like rock stars with Jalan slinging it. He is decisive, strong, and has the ear of his teammates. These two up-and-comers, Winn and McClendon, get to battle it out for the chance to keep their team in the playoff mix.
Advantage: Push
Running Backs
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Houston has only just started to find their rhythm on offense, yet their run game is still in need of some help. Zequandre White (11 rushes for 40 yards) and Kirk Merritt (6 rushes for 24 yards) are making some headway in the run game, averaging nearly 4 yards per carry between the two of them. However, the north and south movements from this duo have been a struggle. Always trying to get extra yards they move laterally more than they should, usually resulting in no gain or a loss of yards. Meanwhile, Deneric Prince may be one the best downhill runners in the league. Because of that he will be the back to look out for in this match-up as he excels in breaking tackles and moving the chains.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Arguably the biggest mid-season roster move in the UFL happened Tuesday when the Showboats announced Wes Hills was signing with the team. They dropped promising RB Jacob Kibodi to open up the spot, however, Wes instantly pushes this RB room miles ahead of where it was. Offensive Coordinator Noel Mazzone was behind the offense that gave Hills the achievement of league’s top runner in 2023 (680 yards / 10 TDs). If he can come back from the torn quad he incurred with the Panthers last year then he will be the best Running Back on the field this weekend in Houston. Rotating Roughneck RB1s Kirk Merritt, Lorenzo Lingard, and most recently, ZaQuandre White average a collective 49 rush yards per game. Both teams need to show improvement ASAP.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The Roughnecks have, and I stand by this statement (check out previous Shakedowns), maybe the deepest receiving corps in the entire league. Last week, McClendon spread the ball around to 10 different receivers. Justin Hall remains the top producer of the group. He hauled in 9-of-10 targets while racking up 68 yards.
Although it is tough to overlook the Showboats’ last performance against Birmingham. They put up 235 total receiving yards using five different receivers. They might not have the depth that Houston has, but they have the capability to be a more productive group behind the new-found success at QB.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
This week the Showboats announced the return to the active roster for Daewood Davis, their leading receiver last season. He joins this season’s league leader Jonathan Adams, veterans Dee Anderson & Isiah Hennie, and promising newcomers Kwamie Lassiter and Isaiah Washington to form the best receiving crew in the UFL. Justin Hall has caught more passes than any receiver this year but is averaging only 7.7 yards per catch. TE Josh Pederson is starting to show why he was able to remain on the Jacksonville Jaguars team during the 2024 season. Emmanul Butler is top 7 in TD catches in the UFL. Solid receiving group for Houston but not as deep as Memphis.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Offensive Line
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Both of these o-lines have improved a lot over the first half of the season. A week ago the Roughnecks front line only allowed one sack to a tough Brahmas defense. However, this week’s match-up will present similar hurdles. Still this will be an o-line vs d-line battle to see who can stand tough throughout the full sixty minutes. However, like I mentioned these two lines have had success in their own ways and are pretty evenly matched.
Advantage: Push
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The Showboats o-line finally saw some breathing room playing in front of a confident QB. They didn’t allow any sacks against the Stallions, the team who had two sacks the previous week against the Roughnecks. With Daewood Davis and Wes Hills in the offensive tool belt it should be even easier to keep their quarterback clean. On the Houston side, OL Coach Tom Cable has changed the culture by coaching the Head Coach, resulting in two wins already for a team many expected would go winless. Center Jack Kramer is arguably the best in the league. Veterans Isaiah Battle and Avery Gennesy help shore up this solid front.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Line
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Similar to the offensive lines, these defenses have found success in different ways. The d-line for Houston have their days but still need work. They still haven’t found a solution to slowing down a good running back, which will prove to be a challenge in this week’s match-up. Firstly, stopping the runs should be the main focus for Houston’s defense. The next hurdle is not letting them into the secondary. Meanwhile, the Showboats’ success has come from their d-line.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Showboats big men put former Showboat Case Cookus in the grass thrice behind the line of scrimmage to give the D-Line 5 sacks on the year. Boogie Roberts, P.J. Hall, Nasir Player, Izaiah Green-May, and Jaylon Allen make for an imposing front line. Only one-and-a-half of the Roughnecks’ nine sacks have come by way of their defensive line and they have yet to hold a team under 100 yards rushing.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Linebackers
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Both of these teams have incredibly productive linebackers. As a result, both quarterbacks will need to make smart decisions and be very careful with where they place the ball.
The standout for Memphis is Steele Chambers. He’s a menace in the pass game who will need to be accounted for at all times.
The Roughnecks, on the other hand, have more success with this group of players. Marvin Moody has a similar playing style to Chambers. Coupled with Jamir Jones and Tashawn Bower having the ability to bring the pressure and get to the quarterback (as seen against San Antonio) will be key.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Showboats LB Steele Chambers missed counterpart Zeke Vandenburgh, who was out with injury against the Stallions, but Andrew Dowell stepped in and made seven tackles and forced a fumble. If Zeke returns to the lineup it will make Defensive Coordinator Jarren Horton’s life easier, but Memphis still won’t match the depth on the Houston side. Leon O’Neal is a DPOY contender, supported by Roughneck veterans Marvin Moody, J.T. Tyler, and draft pick Xavier Benson. They are able to blitz and cover routes with the best of them. The majority of Houston’s sacks come from the linebacker position.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Defensive Backs
Cory Lozier (HOU)
This is the category that Houston has shined in all year despite their many struggles. Their safeties and cornerbacks have played well on several occasions, and have even carried the team on their back at times.
Corn Elder is a big-hitting cornerback with lots of big play potential (1 interception/2 PBUs last week). Rayshad Williams was able to show his potential against the Brahmas with an interception. Additionally, Leon O’Neal’s presence on the field as the defensive leader can’t be Understated. He has the potential to do anything including pass breakups, forcing fumbles, sacks, and tackling behind the sticks.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Eli Walker snagged the first Showboats interception of the year, preventing a Stallions TD in the process. The Memphis defensive backs had a nice showing against the Stallions but have lots of room to improve. They are dead last in pass-breakups. The Roughnecks’ Rayshad Williams is second in the league in interceptions, and Corn Elder is the best DB in the UFL coming off the bench.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Win and Score Predictions
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Advantage Count: Houston Roughnecks (3), Memphis Showboats (3), Push (1)
This is as close to a true pick’em as it gets in my mind. What I think it’s going to come down to is how well the o-line can protect their quarterback. Both of these teams have gotten their offense moving more and more over the last few weeks. They both do a good job of getting to the QB and that’s why I think protection will be the difference maker. The key for Houston is to start strong and not let their foot off the gas. They need to play a full sixty minutes of smart, turnover-free football. If they can manage to do so, Houston should come out on top.. Houston, 21-18.
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Advantage Count: Memphis Showboats (3), Houston Roughnecks (2), Push (2)
This should be a knock-down, drag-out type of game that comes down to the wire. Both teams are hungry and scrappy with nothing to lose, and a slim chance at playoff hopes to gain. The big moves by Memphis this week tell me they want it more. Memphis, 23-20.
Betting Predictions
Line: Roughnecks (-5.5) O/U: 36.5
Cory Lozier (HOU)
It was a close game in week three, and I think it will be another close one this week. I do think Houston walks away with the win to make it two-in-a-row. I don’t think the Roughneck’s will cover the spread with how close of a game it should be, but I do think the over will hit.
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
As of Tuesday night the over/under is 36.5. Over the past few weeks UFL offenses have solved some of their early disjointedness and are putting up higher scores. With the recent improvements at QB for these teams I am taking the over. The Roughnecks are favored by 5.5 in the spread. I am banking on the Showboats to cover.