By: Jesse Germonprez (MICH) and Drew Wells (DC)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
The Michigan Panthers return home after a frustrating 32–27 loss to the Battlehawks at The Dome. Now 3–2, they host the 4–1 D.C. Defenders in a critical Week 6 match-up that could shape the playoff picture in both conferences.
The Defenders are coming off a chaotic 37–33 win over Arlington, while Michigan looks to get back on track after once again letting a winnable game slip away. For the first time this season, the Panthers have clarity at quarterback — and that might make all the difference. Is that the only X-factor in this game?
Let’s break it down and find out!
Quarterbacks
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
The revolving door is finally closed — Bryce Perkins has officially been named the starter by head coach Mike Nolan. After weeks of strong play interrupted by head-scratching in-game decisions, Perkins now has full control of the offense. He was dialed in again last week, going 21-of-25 for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns before being inexplicably benched for Danny Etling. Etling threw an interception that flipped the game, and Nolan has now publicly committed to letting Perkins lead moving forward.
D.C.’s Jordan Ta’amu remains one of the UFL’s most dangerous quarterbacks. He threw for 308 yards and 3 touchdowns last week and added a rushing score. His ability to escape pressure and extend plays was the difference against Arlington, especially late. Michigan just gave up 70 rushing yards and 2 scores to Max Duggan — stopping Ta’amu on the ground will be a major emphasis.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Drew Wells (DC)
Although Michigan has finally decided to stick with Bryce Perkins under center, D.C. comes in as arguably the best team in the league. Jordan Ta’amu has been leading the charge for D.C, and leads the league in passing. Michigan’s offense has shown life at times, and committing to Perkins may shore up the inconsistencies that their offense has shown. That remains to be seen, though, so I have to give the advantage to the Defenders.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Running Backs
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Toa Taua is emerging as a star in Michigan’s backfield. He ran for 74 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 15 carries last week, showing quickness, balance, and vision. Nate McCrary continues to handle early-down work, but Taua gives the offense real juice when he’s in.
D.C. still has talent in the backfield, led by Abram Smith, but the production has dropped. Smith was bottled up by Arlington, and the run game overall hasn’t looked the same over the past two weeks. Based on recent output, Michigan has been more consistent but its too close to call.
Advantage: Push
Drew Wells (DC)
The run game shows a hard tilt in favor of Michigan, statistically speaking. The average yards per rush are almost identical between the two. Michigan allows roughly 3.5 yards per rush attempt, and the Defenders are only averaging that much against their opponents. Similarly, the Panthers run the ball at a 4.3 yards per rush clip, while D.C. allows almost exactly that much against every time their opponent runs the ball. The talent here is a push, but I think Michigan holds a large advantage rushing the ball as a whole.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Michigan’s top target, Malik Turner, continues to be a chain mover and red zone weapon. Siaosi Mariner had another 100+ yard outing last week and has become a consistent deep threat. Tight end Gunnar Oakes has carved out a role in short-yardage and red zone packages.
Unfortunately, Samson Nacua will miss this game after receiving a one-game suspension from the league for a post-game altercation with a fan in St. Louis. Nacua had been one of Michigan’s most productive receivers in recent weeks, so his absence will be felt. The Panthers hope to get Devon Ross back to help balance out the group.
D.C.’s receiving corps is dangerous. Chris Powell had 89 yards and a touchdown last week, and Brandon Sanders made plays downfield consistently. The Defenders can hit you in chunks, but their passing game often comes in bursts rather than sustained drives.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Drew Wells (DC)
The Panthers have a very good receiving corps this season. Mariner, Turner, and Nacua (serving suspension this week) really bring huge play-making ability and consistency when they are “on”. That said, D.C. likely flexes the best receiver group in the UFL. They have four receivers over 185 yards on the season, and they are always a threat for chunk plays. If the Defenders offensive line can provide time, these guys will feast against almost anyone.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Offensive Line
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Michigan’s offensive line has quietly been one of the highest-graded units in the UFL through five weeks — both in pass protection and run blocking. They held up well against St. Louis’ pressure and continue to open lanes for Taua and McCrary.
D.C.’s offensive line held up reasonably well against Arlington but showed vulnerability under pressure. Ta’amu’s escapability masks some of the breakdowns, but Michigan has the more stable group up front in the pass and run game.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Drew Wells (DC)
Both of these offenses lines are very strong. They allow very few sacks and communicate very well in blitz pickup coordination. The run game will be an important factor in this match-up, and Michigan’s offensive line has been fantastic at opening holes for their guys to run behind and through. D.C.’s run game has disappeared altogether at times this season. They can’t afford to have that happen this week, as they get into the meat of the schedule with the way their remaining opponents have developed and improved this season. Michigan gets the nod here.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Defensive Line
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Michigan’s defensive front has talent, but they struggled last week against Max Duggan. Kenny Willekes continues to be the most consistent presence, generating pressure and showing discipline on the edge. Willekes tallied 4 tackles and added 1 sack bringing his season total to 2.5 on the season. The Panthers need more interior push and edge containment if they’re going to slow down Ta’amu, especially when he breaks the pocket.
D.C.’s line is anchored by Joseph Wallace, who helped shut down multiple Arlington runs and collapse the interior. The Defenders’ front consistently disrupts blocking schemes and forces teams into uncomfortable downs. They are physical, well-coached, and set the tone. Should be a great match-up with the Panthers’ O-Line.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Drew Wells (DC)
It appears as though Michigan has trouble with QBs that are mobile. They also lack quality depth. This is not a problem for the Defenders, as their front seven functions as one group and really attacks the line of scrimmage. The defensive line is the star of that attack, as they are tasked with closing run lanes and causing chaos to let blitzing backers through. While the Panthers flash talent at the position, D.C. has established themselves as arguably the best at this position in the league (Arlington being the only other potential claim).
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Linebackers
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Frank Ginda remains the heartbeat of Michigan’s defense totaling 3 tackles and a timely sack, and Donovan Mutin picked up some snaps from Noah Dawkins this past week. That said, this group missed several key tackles last week and allowed Duggan to escape far too easily. Containing Ta’amu starts with cleaner linebacker pursuit angles.
D.C.’s linebackers play fast and downhill. Anthony Hines racked up 6 tackles and a sack last week, flying all over the field. He’s been a quiet star for this unit, and they complement the line well with aggressive second-level pressure.
Advantage: Push
Drew Wells (DC)
The linebackers in a scheme like D.C.’s are allowed freedom to roam, and have the ability to blitz through the line unimpeded. These guys can drop into zones OR rush the QB, and the swarm the ball as a unit. They are a Wiley and well-disciplined group that is heavy on talent. Michigan has an absolute STUD in Frank Ginda, but the overall depth and performance on the season has to go to the Defenders here.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Defensive Backs
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Both secondaries were tested early and often last week, forced to clean up plays after breakdowns at the first two levels. DC’s defensive backs were the most active group on that side of the ball. Cornerback Kelvin Joseph led the team with eight tackles, while T.J. Hawkins and Darius Baker each added four. Safety D.J. Anderson recorded a sack and was a steady presence throughout. The biggest play of the day came late, when safety Josh Proctor sealed the win with an end zone interception that erased a game-tying threat from Arlington.
Michigan’s defensive backs were similarly relied on, as safeties Arnold Tarpley (6 total tackles) and Kedrick Whitehead (5 total) were consistently involved in stopping the run and containing big plays. Nacua and Dent both contributed in coverage and run support often. With Jordan Ta’amu’s ability to extend plays and target mismatches downfield, the Panthers’ defensive backs will need to stay disciplined and maybe even steal a possession of their own.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Drew Wells (DC)
The Panthers defensive backfield is very skilled and opportunistic. That said, a defensive backfield will not succeed unless their front seven is doing their job and creating chaos. Nacua and Tarpley are very good at their jobs, but facing a mobile QB can crush an entire defense. D.C.’s secondary, on the other hand, do well as both blitzers and coverage guys. That good front seven they have really causes problems for opposing pass games, so the secondary should have plenty of opportunities to make game-impacting plays.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Win and Score Predictions
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Advantage Count: Michigan Panthers (3), D.C. Defenders (2), Push (2)
This is a huge one for Michigan. They’re back home, they’ve named Bryce Perkins the starter, and for the first time all season, there’s no “sous chef” waiting on the sideline to stir the pot. With full control of the kitchen, Perkins should finally be able to cook.
The offense is balanced. The O-line is playing at a high level. Toa Taua is emerging as a legit threat, and even without Nacua, this receiving corps can still win routes and move chains—especially if Devon Ross returns.
Defensively, it’s all about discipline. If Michigan’s D-line and linebackers stay in their lanes and remember what burned them last week, they should be able to keep Jordan Ta’amu under relative control. The secondary has to stay sharp on deep shots, particularly in scramble situations where Ta’amu loves to take his chances.
D.C. has more than enough firepower to make this a game, but Michigan has the talent, the urgency, and now the clarity under center to close it out at home. Michigan, 27-25.
Drew Wells (DC)
Advantage Count: D.C. Defenders (5), Michigan Panthers (2), Push (0)
This game will likely come down to which defense causes the most problems at the point of attack. Michigan is a good team, and their effort outshines their talent level (especially defensively). Because of how dominant their front seven have been, though, I have to give this to the Defenders. D.C., 26-20.
Betting Predictions
Line: Michigan (-2.5) O/U: 42.5
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Michigan enters as the slight favorite with momentum behind Bryce Perkins and a strong offensive line. D.C. can score in bunches, but their defense has cracks that Michigan could exploit. With both offenses heating up, the over looks tempting.
Drew Wells (DC)
Despite my score prediction above, I think the smart play here is the under. I do like D.C. to win outright, however.