By: Drew Wells (ARL) and Amirah Razman (STL)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
This week’s game in the Battledome between the Battlehawks and Renegades will be a tale of loaded rosters with different trajectories. Arlington is still a force atop the XFL Conference despite their late-game meltdown against D.C. last week. Meanwhile, St. Louis is trying to find their wings on offense under new QB Max Duggan. Will their win last week propel them to knock the Renegades down another notch? Let’s break it down!
Quarterbacks
Amirah Razman (STL)
The last time these two teams met was almost two weeks ago. Max Duggan was unexpectedly thrust into the spotlight following Manny Wilkins’ season-ending Achilles injury. Duggan struggled the last time St. Louis faced off against Arlington, going for only 78 yards and two interceptions. It seemed like all hope was lost and the season would be taking an unexpected turn for the worse.
However, that wasn’t the case last week when Duggan recorded 124 yards and two rushing touchdowns against Michigan. Sure, Duggan did struggle a bit with maintaining the ball, overthrowing some of his targets (including what could’ve been a big touchdown for Hakeem Butler), and taking just 1 sack… but it also looked like he just needed a few snaps to find his rhythm within the Battlehawks’ offense.
Luis Perez, on the other hand, continues to be a key dominating force behind Arlington’s offense. Despite their last second loss to DC, the “Spring King” was responsible for throwing multiple darts to his offensive corps, going 23-of-33 for 268 yards and a touchdown. Arlington is looking to be a favorite to make the postseason, while STL has to continue removing some debris to be in the conversation. I’m confident Duggan will continue to grow as he becomes more comfortable with being the starter. Given Luis Perez’s stellar performance all season, I gotta give Arlington the advantage here.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Drew Wells (ARL)
The Arlington offense has been very good this year. Louis Perez is a stud, and he has a knack for getting his team in good positions on key downs. His offensive line has been great, but they fell apart late in the game last week a bit. Regardless, Perez will lead them to put up significant points this week.
Really, both offenses have been fantastic. St. Louis has stumbled after their starter went down for the year, but Max Duggan has stepped in and made some big plays. He made even bigger plays upon the return of Hakeem Butler, which really helped open up that offense. Pass blocking has not been a strength for St. Louis, so I kind of expect Duggan to try to force things. This is not a recipe for success against such a good defense.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Running Backs
Amirah Razman (STL)
Jacob Saylors has been quiet recently, having not scored a touchdown since STL’s Week 2 matchup against San Antonio. Last week, Saylors had 12 rushing attempts for 49 yards, with several attempts to score in the end zone. Although he never made any of those attempts, he is still a dynamic force in STL and an emerging OPOY candidate. Saylors has quite the wheels too – when he does have the ball, he is capable of running through defensive lines in the blink of an eye.
On Arlington’s side, however, is Kalen Ballage — who has been spectacular in his rookie campaign for the Renegades. He came up big last week with a 24-yard touchdown in the second quarter last week against DC to extend the Renegades’ lead, and has recorded 276 total yards all season. It’s hard to give one team an advantage here as they both exhibit so much talent in their RB core.
Advantage: Push
Drew Wells (ARL)
Both sides have top-notch running backs in Kalen Ballage (ARL) and Jacob Saylors (STL). The Battlehawks have significantly more rushing yards on the season than the Renegades, over 200 yards more in fact. That said, Arlington is giving up about 3.7 yards per rushing attempt this year. Despite the great runners, the defenses will determine the performance they put forth. I like Arlington’s defense to shut down the rushing attack the most between the two defenses.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Amirah Razman (STL)
Hakeem Butler returned for the Battlehawks last week and was responsible for two fourth-quarter touchdowns, including a big 67-yard touchdown run and STL’s game-winning touchdown, as the fourth quarter became an offensive battle between the Battlehawks and Panthers. Tight end Jake Sutherland had his best performance so far this season, with 2 targets and 2 receptions for 21 yards.
Arlington may stall offensively at times, but their wide receiver crew was dominating last week, with Deontay Burnett punching in one touchdown in his most highly-targeted game this season. However, nothing can compare to reigning OPOY Hakeem Butler — who I expect will put up a dominant performance this week.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Drew Wells (ARL)
While Hakeem Butler and Jahcour Pearson are a dynamic duo, and Butler is easily the best receiver on the field at any given time, Arlington’s receiver corps is both deeper and more effective statistically.
In his return to action last week, Butler put up 124 yards and two scores on his way to becoming the second-leading receiver for the Battlehawks on the season. The Renegades have FOUR wide receivers at and over 160 yards on the year. All of them are well into double digit receptions as well. Despite Butler being on the field, Arlington’s pass game is the bigger threat.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Offensive Line
Amirah Razman (STL)
Offensive line continues to come up big for St. Louis, even with a change at quarterback. They were able to give Duggan plenty of time to do what he needed to do, which included multiple rushing plays and scoring drives. It has been a tough stretch for STL’s offensive line in recent weeks, having gone up against two powerful defenses in D.C. and Arlington. However, they bounced back last week by only allowing one sack.
They once again have to deal with Arlington’s defense this week, but they should be able to find their groove easily as they are likely familiar with the defensive schematics that Arlington runs. Arlington’s offensive line is solid as well, allowing 2 sacks last week against DC. Expect both offensive lines to have dominant performances this weekend, but given that the Knights of Colombo has done a great job protecting Duggan, I give STL the advantage.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Drew Wells (ARL)
These offensive lines pride themselves on their run blocking. The difference, however, comes in their pass blocking and the style of the opposing front seven. Arlington has 243 yards more than St. Louis (1000 to 757) through the air this year, which to me screams that there is a ton of time for Perez in that backfield. Duggan is no slouch, but he is young and will be facing a very stout blitz all game. If Manny Wilkins were still healthy, I may be singing a different tune to this point in The Shakedown. I like Duggan a lot, but I think Arlington gets to him early and often.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Defensive Line
Amirah Razman (STL)
STL’s defensive line continues to wow the crowd every week. Despite faltering a few times last week, especially in the beginning of the game, STL’s defensive core kept it together as they put up two sacks against Michigan. Arlington also boasts a strong defensive corps, and they came up swinging the last time they played St. Louis, coming up with 6 sacks. Who has the true advantage here is too close to call, as both defenses have had stellar performances last week.
Advantage: Push
Drew Wells (ARL)
These defensive fronts are very active, but in different ways. St. Louis relies on run stoppers up front. A telling stat exists between these two teams: St. Louis allows more TFLs than does Arlington. (Arlington has 11 more than St. Louis on the year.)
In my opinion, TFLs are a stat that is heavily dependent on the effectiveness of a defensive line. Yes, linebackers have a profound effect on them, but they can’t get through a line that isn’t preoccupied by the d-line.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Linebackers
Amirah Razman (STL)
Travis Feeney, Willie Harvey, and Chris Garrett all came in clutch in last week’s game. They continue to be forces of nature for the Battlehawks defense, always coming up big in critical moments. Arlington also boasts a strong linebacker core, with Donald Payne recording 7 tackles last week. However, I gotta give the advantage to St. Louis, as this LB corps continues to dominate week in and week out.
Advantage: St. Louis Battlehawks
Drew Wells (ARL)
This one is close in my eyes, as both groups in the middle of these defenses are absolutely outstanding. Willie Harvey (STL) is a stud, ranging sideline-to-sideline and wreaking havoc between the whistles. Donald Payne (ARL) is everywhere as well, and sports 35 tackles on the season. The difference to me is that St. Louis blitzes from all three levels pretty frequently. Arlington relies almost exclusively on their front seven to get pressure and stop the run. With more responsibility on their shoulders and a very comparable performance level, I tend to think Arlington has the edge here.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Defensive Backs
Amirah Razman (STL)
STL’s DBs came up clutch last week, notably with a Kameron Kelly interception late in the fourth. Qwynnterrio Cole is also a crazy playmaker for STL’s secondary, recording 9 tackles including 4 solo tackles last week, one of his best performances to date. STL’s secondary is known for their hard approach, but we can’t count out Arlington’s secondary either.
Advantage: Push
Drew Wells (ARL)
These two secondaries are loaded with talent. Ajene Harris has been on an absolute HEATER as of late for the Renegades, and Joe Powell is always a dawg. Meanwhile, Kameron Kelly and Qwinnterrio Cole consistently make huge plays in both coverage and run support for the Battlehawks. St. Louis has seven interceptions compared to Arlington’s five, but Arlington has more active hands on the back end with 35 PBUs to St. Louis’ 27. Never a more clear indicator of a push, in my eyes.
Advantage: Push
Win and Score Predictions
Amirah Razman (STL)
Advantage Count: St. Louis Battlehawks (3), Arlington Renegades (1), Push (3)
The past weekend was a great weekend for UFL football — it seems as if teams are finding their footing offensively, giving us absolute offensive masterclasses. I think Max Duggan will really find his footing this week as he gets more comfortable with his offense, utilizing both Jacob Saylors and Hakeem Butler equally as well as being more comfortable with running with needed. STL has had its fair share of offensive struggles, which they can’t afford to have this week. They need to be able to move the ball and capitalize in the red zone, minimizing the amount of mistakes as possible. I expect both team’s defenses to put up incredible performances, especially as Arlington’s offense has shown more weaknesses.
With this being a revenge match for STL, combined with the fact that they’re back at the Battledome this week, STL will win this one. Will they win it easily? No. It will certainly be a battle, but they’ll have this one in the bag. St. Louis, 32-28.
Drew Wells (ARL)
Advantage Count: Arlington Renegades (6), St. Louis Battlehawks (0), Push (1)
This is going to go one of two ways. Either Arlington is going to jump on the Battlehawks from the very beginning, or the Renegades will start slow and pull away late. I really like this Battlehawks squad. They are hungry and compete on every single play. Overall, though, the Renegades just seem to be slightly better across the board. Arlington, 34-19
Betting Predictions
Line: St. Louis Battlehawks (-2.5) O/U: 42.5
Amirah Razman (STL)
I think STL will cover the spread thanks to their tendency to produce explosive plays offensively. It will be a close game, but I would be surprised if STL doesn’t cover the spread here. I would go with the over as well.
Drew Wells (ARL)
I’ll be putting my money on the Renegades to win outright. The Battledome is fearsome, but Arlington has showed a steely spirit in road games so far this season. Pair that with Duggan being a bit green on the job, and I think we see Perez light it up while Duggan puts forward a mixed bag of results. It seems wild to say since this league is not usually a high-scoring one, but I’m taking the over as well.