By: Jesse Germonprez (Mich.) and Drew Wells (MEM)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
The UFL is back and Week 1 kicks off on Sunday, March 30th for the Memphis Showboats and Michigan Panthers at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium at 12pm EST. Both teams bring tuned up rosters and playoff expectations into the season. Here’s a breakdown of who holds the edge at each position group heading into Saturday’s match-up.
Quarterbacks
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Memphis starts EJ Perry, recently shipped to Memphis from Michigan, who has flashes of athleticism but limited upside as a long-term answer. Michigan counters with Bryce Perkins, a dual-threat at qb who’s season was cut short due to injury a year ago. With Danny Etling and Rocky Lombardi behind him, Michigan has more depth, versatility, and proven play-makers in the QB room.
Advantage: Mich.
Drew Wells (MEM)
E.J. Perry has defected, and now has a Week 1 showdown with his former squad up in Michigan. E.J. was part of a two-QB system at times with backup Danny Etling. Neither could really take the lead, and most of the time that offense suffered for it. Memphis bringing in E.J. Perry is really an attempt to bring some production to their squad and limit turnovers. Michigan, however, counters with a borderline NFL squad player that has a Super Bowl ring on his hand. He wasn’t the starter, but he has next-level talent and experience.
Advantage: Mich.
Running Backs
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Deneric Prince leads the Showboats’ overhauled backfield and brings a physical style, but the depth behind him is less proven. Michigan’s trio of McCrary, Shirden, and Colburn brings a nice balance of speed, power, and experience. The Panthers’ backfield looks more complete.
Advantage: Mich.
Drew Wells (MEM)
For Memphis, Deneric Prince comes in and takes the lead role in the backfield of an anemic offense. His NFL experience with the Chiefs and Dolphins surely will serve him well. That said, he is hoping the offensive line is a bit better this year. Michigan comes in with the same backfield starters as the beginning of last season, and a much more proven offensive line in front of them.
Advantage: Mich.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Memphis brings top-end talent with Jonathan Adams as a physical mismatch and Chris Pierce Jr. as a steady red-zone option, while Dee Anderson adds more size outside. Michigan counters with strong depth in Marcus Simms, Malik Turner, and Samson Nacua, plus reliable tight end play. Memphis has the star power, Michigan has the depth—it evens out.
Advantage: Push
Drew Wells (MEM)
I tend to agree with my colleague here. Dee Anderson could be a red zone target, while reliable tight end play is always a good fallback for an offense. The difference is going to be (yet again) offensive line play, and Michigan has fared far better than the ‘Boats in that department.
Advantage: Mich.
Offensive Line
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
The Showboats have size and some top-tier starters, but lack depth and chemistry. The Panthers return with several key pieces in the trenches and have gelled well as a unit. In tight match-ups like this, consistency up front makes the difference.
Advantage: Michigan
Drew Wells (MEM)
Michigan’s offensive line was hot and cold last year, but they have experience together and aren’t a revolving door for defensive line penetration. Memphis was exactly that all last season. Some key pickups and returns give Memphis a chance to show up better on the offensive line this year, but it is very much a “prove it” scenario.
Advantage: Mich.
Defensive Line
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Memphis features tough, physical trench players like John Atkins Sr. and Boogie Roberts who can anchor against the run and control gaps. Michigan brings a deeper rotation with high-motor guys like Levi Bell and Garrett Marino who excel at creating pressure off the edge, not to mention Breeland Speaks. Memphis brings power, Michigan brings depth and disruption—it’s a classic strength vs. strength match-up.
Advantage: Push
Drew Wells (MEM)
Memphis brings some serious beef to the table on the DL, but that didn’t really turn into a great run defense last year. The numbers seem to suggest differently, but the pass defense allowed nearly 250 yards per game last season. This is a weird place to mention a pass defense stat, but pass defense starts with a good rush. They’ll need to make serious strides here to progress this year as a defense. Michigan’s unit had 30 sacks last year and was part of a defense that allowed under 800 rushing yards all season. Clear advantage.
Advantage: Mich.
Linebackers
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Rigby and Vandenburgh are going to be solid for Memphis, but untested at the pro level. Michigan boasts Frank Ginda, the heart of their defense and former Player of the Year, with athletic backers like Javin White and Donovan Mutin filling out a well-rounded unit.
Advantage: Mich.
Drew Wells (MEM)
There isn’t much to talk about at the LB position, as Frank Ginda and Noah Dawkins make up a solid core to that Panthers defense. Ginda is a legitimate leader and play-maker. Memphis comes in with a young and largely untested group, although the talent is there.
Advantage: Mich.
Defensive Backs
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Memphis has size, speed, and versatility in the back end with Ja’Quan Sheppard showing great upside at corner and Obi Melifonwu bringing experience and range at safety. This is a physical group that should match up well with most receiving corps. Michigan’s secondary is disciplined and smart, led by Tyree Gillespie, Kai Nacua, and Keni-H Lovely, but lacks some of the raw athleticism and ball-hawking ability Memphis offers.
Advantage: MEM
Drew Wells (MEM)
In terms of talent, Memphis has an above-average squad in the secondary. They were severely under served with the lack of a pass rush last year, spending a relative eternity in coverage each game. Their performance will be determined by improvement in that realm. Michigan has talent and experience, but I like the talent level of Memphis better here if they can get help up front.
Advantage: MEM
Win and Score Predictions
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Advantage Count: Michigan Panthers (4), Memphis Showboats (2), Push (1)
This one has all the makings of a defensive battle. Both teams bring physical, disciplined fronts and secondaries that can match up well, meaning points will be at a premium. The difference comes down to which offense executes better in key moments. Michigan’s slight edge in quarterback depth as well as offensive line chemistry and overall balance gives them just enough to come out on top. It won’t be flashy, but it’ll be a hard-fought win. Michigan, 23-17.
Drew Wells (MEM)
Advantage Count: Michigan Panthers (6), Memphis Showboats (1), Push (0)
Unless there are massive improvements from last season, the ‘Boats are likely to be sunk in this one. It will be interesting to see if either quarterback takes over the game. A middling scorelines in this one is likely. Michigan, 24-6.
Betting Predictions
Line: Panthers (-5.5) O/U: 38
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
In a Week 1 match-up featuring two strong defenses and offenses still finding their rhythm, however Michigan has the edge in roster balance and should cover late. With points likely coming at a premium early in the season, the under feels like the smart play.
Drew Wells (MEM)
I would strongly consider taking the Panthers to cover, and I’m fairly certain I’d hammer the under.