By: Royce Waxenfelter (MEM) and Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
The Birmingham Stallions have three wins in a row, and seem to be growing stronger. Can the Memphis Showboats break through and keep their season from sinking? Find out with us as we analyze this weekend’s match-up!
Quarterbacks
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Memphis QBs once again proved to be inconsistent and anemic in Game 4. Both E.J. Perry and Troy Williams hit on 50% of their passes but collectively threw for a dismal 80 yards. With interim Head Coach Jim Turner back at the helm again, the Showboats did what they did in Game 1 in his first game as HC, pulling QBs in and out of the game like they were NHL Forwards. The method makes for hideous offensive play. If he’s healed enough from his injured flank, the Stallions will start Matt Corral. If not, they will go with Case Cookus, the starter last season for the Showboats. The hindsight is harsh for Memphis fans. Whether it is Corral or Cookus, they’re both better than what E.J. Perry or Troy Williams have shown us so far this season.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
At the time I am writing this, it’s unclear who will be under center for the Stallions, but if it’s either Corral or Cookus, I like Birmingham’s chances. Corral has one less game played but is sitting in fourth in passing yards and is tied for second in passing touchdowns. He also finds space to pick up yards with his legs. Regarding Memphis, E.J. Perry’s TD/INT ratio is 2-5. You’re not going to win many games throwing the ball like that! He doesn’t seem to know which team he’s throwing to, and Troy Williams has shown similar ball control. YIKES! Stallions all the way, even with uncertainty.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Running Backs
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Showboat running backs are averaging only 51 yards per game this season. Deneric Prince has shown flashes of what he can do, but the defenses they’ve faced so far have shut down the Memphis run game. Birmingham’s D is capable of doing the same. For Birmingham, C.J. Marable and Ricky Person haven’t put together a dominant game yet this season but we’ve all seen what they can do in previous seasons. Either may break though for a TD run on any given play.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
I’ve been disappointed in Birmingham’s running backs this season. I expected them to be leaned on a bit more, but it could be likely due to the games being close down the stretch. Pearson Jr. hasn’t hit 100 yards rushing yet this year and Corral is quickly catching up on the team leaderboard. C.J. Marable has been called on lately but still not at the levels I was expecting. One of the silver linings of Memphis is Deneric Prince (if you can call it that). He is sitting 10th overall in rushing yards but only picks up 3.6 yards per carry. He will need to do more if he wants to win this game for Memphis. Both sides are very mid.
Advantage: Push
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Jonathan Adams had an off-week for Memphis in Week 4 but he still leads the league in receiving yards. Kwamie Lassiter has stepped up comfortably as a second option. The Showboats TE room is thinner this week after they released Ryan Izzo. The remaining Tight Ends, Jay Jay Wilson and Chris Pierce, are good at blocking but are rarely targeted in the passing game. The opposite is true from Birmingham. They target their TEs on 26% of their pass attempts. Jordan Thomas and Jace Sternberger are better pass catchers than most WRs in the UFL. At Wide Receiver, Deon Cain and Davion Davis lead a deep crew that will catch at least one long bomb for a TD against the Showboats.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Well, one receiver in Memphis seems to be getting all the action and that’s Jonathan Adams who is leading the league with 284 receiving yards. After him, there is only one other receiving sitting in the top 40 in receiving yards and that’s Kwamie Lassiter II with 128 yards. The Stallions leader, Cain has 162 yards but six other players are sitting on that top 40 list. The ball gets spread around more on the Stallions and it’s been benefiting them greatly.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Offensive Line
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The Showboats have been so bad at running the ball this year they made a trade this week to shake up their O-line, sending Guard J.D. DiRenzo to Arlington for Tackle Kellen Diesch. Who knows if it will help? The good news is that the Showboats have been able to hinder the pass rush to a point, stopping both Houston and D.C. from getting a sack. The Stallions have shown that they will allow an occasional defender to pierce the line for a sack, and they have also had trouble making headway for their running backs this year. The difference in these 2 O-lines will come down to possession time and which gets exhausted first.
Advantage: Push
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Surprisingly, Memphis’ offensive line has been holding up alright when it comes to sacks. They are tied for third in the least given so far this year, with six. That averages one and a half sacks per game, while Birmingham averages giving up two sacks a game. Both teams have some of the worst run games in the league, so let’s just call this a push.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Line
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
For Memphis, Jaylon Allen, P.J. Hall, Izayah Green-May, and Boogie Roberts had their least effective week so far against the Panthers in week 4. They signed former SMU DT DeVere Levelston to add some depth. The Stallions’ Bradlee Anae leads the league in sacks through 4 games. Carlos Davis, Perrion Winfrey, and Ronnie Perkins are leading the push to limit offenses to average only 12 points per game after their week 1 disaster. They need to work on limiting their own penalties if they want to rise to the best D-Line in the UFL, but they are getting close.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Memphis has only managed to earn two sacks in the first four games while Birmingham averages two sacks a game! Birmingham’s defense has also given up 150 less yards on the ground than Memphis. These two key stats are why I believe the Stallions defensive line is superior.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Linebackers
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Showboats LBs Steele Chambers and Zeke Vandenburgh are #2 and #8 in the UFL in total tackles, respectively. Compare that to Kyahva Tezino and Tae Crowder, who are #5 & #10 and it would seem the Showboats have the edge, but when you factor in the recent return of Marquis Gates to the Stallions lineup, they take the lead by a nose.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Both sides have impressive linebacker corps. Some say Steele Chambers and Zeke Vandenburgh on Memphis are the best LB tandem in the league. However, I have been impressed with Tae Crowder and DeMarquis Gates on Birmingham. Either side can win or lose the game. It will be an interesting battle to watch.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Backs
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Eli Walker, Kyree Woods, Eric Garror, Keaton Ellis, and Mark Gilbert are joined by newcomer, Safety Ravarius Rivers to form a deep defensive backfield with, surprisingly, zero interceptions so far this season. Birmingham may have even more depth. Jojo Tillery is coming off a nice showing where he had the Stallions first INT of the season to help thwart the Roughnecks comeback attempt. Cornerback Steven Gilmore is fourth in the UFL on passes defended. Daniel Isom, A.J. Thomas, and Kenny Robinson round out the Stallions starters. With that kind of depth they’ll be able to double Jonathan Adams and shut down the already sputtering Showboats passing game.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Memphis has yet to record a takeaway. That’s ZERO INTERCEPTIONS OR FUMBLES. WHAT?!? Birmingham has been on the receiving end of three interceptions. The Showboats have given up fewer passing yards but have allowed more passing touchdowns, while the Stallions have a bend-don’t-break secondary. They give up a lot of yards but only TWO passing touchdowns. I HATE watching bend-don’t-break defenses, but somehow they can be effective.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Win and Score Predictions
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Advantage Count: Birmingham Stallions (6), Memphis Showboats (0), Push (1)
From the buzzsaw into the wood chipper; the Showboats schedule is a mean one for a team trying to turn a corner. If the Memphis defense is able to generate turnovers deep in enemy territory they have a slight chance to swing the pendulum in the right direction for the Boats. If not, expect a lopsided win for the Stallions. Birmingham, 33-12.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Advantage Count: Birmingham Stallions (4), Memphis Showboats (0), Push (3)
On paper, this game should be a blowout. Now, anything can happen in the UFL, but I don’t see an upset in Alabama this week. Birmingham is better in most categories, and they are tight in the rest. It could come down to who’s available to play quarterback, but I’m not too worried. Birmingham, 30-12.
Betting Predictions
Line: Stallions (-11.5) O/U: 37.5
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
With the over/under at 37.5 I am going with the over. The defenses of both teams are solid but the sheer amount of time the Memphis defense will be on the field will wear them down and lead to more Stallions scoring opportunities. The Stallions should be able to overcome a wide 10.5-point spread by limiting the Showboats offense and not letting their foot off the gas. Bet the Stallions to cover.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
I’m taking -11.5 Stallions no matter the quarterback, and I could see Birmingham being close to the over/under number on their own.