By: Drew Wells (ARL) and Cory Lozier (HOU)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
The Houston Roughnecks are looking to put their Week 1 blunder in the rear view mirror as they head north to take on the Arlington Renegades. Week 2 will present similar hurdles for Houston while facing another tough offense that can put a bunch of points on the board. The Renegades, on the other hand, will be looking to repeat their Week 1 performance and ride into a nice 2-0 start.
Quarterbacks
Drew Wells (ARL)
It’s going to be hard to argue that Luis Perez is not the best QB in this XFL Conference match-up. The man is a leader, and is playing confidently. He very rarely put Arlington into trouble last week against San Antonio as his Renegades rolled right along to victory. Despite low yardage output and no passing touchdowns, they still had good and timely plays in the pass game because of him. Houston’s QBs both had a rough time last week, running into an absolute buzzsaw at home against the Battlehawks. They start Anthony Brown this week, according to Head Coach CJ Johnson.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Houston’s quarterbacks didn’t have a great showing in week one. For example, two interceptions came from Anthony Brown in the first half. One coming on Houston’s first pass play of the game off of a good defensive play. Until he was taken out in the 3rd qtr Brown seemed off. A lot of his throws were behind or above the intended receivers. Unfortunately for Brown, the few passes that did hit receivers hands were dropped. Nolan Henderson was able to come in and finally find Justin Hall for a touchdown. However that was late in the game and could be the defense tiring out. Arlington didn’t have those problems in their first game. Luis Perez put up 165 yards without finding the endzone, but they had other ways of putting points on the board.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Running Backs
Drew Wells (ARL)
Two words: Kalen. Ballage.
The Renegades really ran the ball well as a whole. The total yardage wasn’t astronomical, but the yardage they got was more than timely. The offensive line created alleys, and the RB corps took care of business. Ballage’s 74-yd touchdown scamper was the longest in UFL history. Deveon Smith also posted 3 scores of his own. By contrast, Houston has a ton to figure out after their RBs only managed a meager 20 yards on the ground last week.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Truly a tale of two tapes. The run game for Houston was non-existent last week. For instance they ended the game with a total of 94 rush yards. 74 of those yards on the ground came from the Quarterbacks. Roughnecks running backs didn’t average more than 2 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Renegades really played a balanced game. They utilized Kalen Ballage as their number 1 back who ran for 110 yards on ten carries. De’Veon Smith was the headliner used as the goal line back. Because of that he put up a very interesting statline of 3 total yards on 3 attempts and found the endzone 3 times. This Arlington backfield may be a bit tough for Houston’s defense.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Drew Wells (ARL)
As emphasized before, Arlington’s pass game was there in the moments they needed to be there. Although the only points scored in the passing game were on a two-point try to Deontay Burnett, this group was productive as a whole. Perez managed to complete a pass to 8 different receiving options, and 6 of the 8 were multi-catch receivers on the day. For the Roughnecks, Justin Hall (40 yds and a touchdown on 5 receptions) and Keke Chism both played well in what was a stinker of an offensive performance last week. Guys like Sal Cannella and Tyler Vaughns getting good service from Luis Perez is what gives Arlington the advantage here.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Despite not being able to showcase it, I believe Houston has the better receiving core of the two. Keke Chism, assuming he will haul in his targets, is an asset regardless of who is at qb. If Nolan Henderson is under center his go to target is Justin Hall and an additional down field threat. The untapped potential in T.J. Vasher is what makes these receivers much more dangerous. On the other hand, Luis Perez likes to share the love and spread the ball around to all of his receivers. Arlington receivers do the little things well, play qb relief/dump offs and gain yards no matter how many.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Offensive Line
Drew Wells (ARL)
I’ll keep this one simple. Houston’s offense looked like they were playing a “One, Mississippi” protection, and their offense looked like backyard football because of it. Arlington’s offense looked decently above average in both the run and pass game. That’s on the O-Lines, largely.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Major improvements are going to need to be made to Houstons o-line. They played a big role in their Week 1 embarrassment. Firstly, the linemen weren’t able to hold their blocks and keep the quarterbacks from running for their lives. Secondly, they couldn’t open up any holes for their running backs to get through. Lastly, the holding penalties on positive plays were costly and momentum killers. Learning how to protect the quarterback while he’s in the pocket needs to be a priority. The quarterback needs to be looking at his receivers downfield and not constantly trying to find a way to stay on their feet.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Defensive Line
Drew Wells (ARL)
The Roughnecks got ran through last week entirely. Tons of time on the field and a beating to show for it. Arlington’s defensive line played solid football, keeping Kellen Mond in the pocket and largely ineffective. Two sacks on the day while only allowing 105 total yards and a touchdown on the ground highlighted a very disciplined DL performance.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The Battlehawks dominated Houston in time of possession, having the ball on offense for more than 35 minutes. The Roughnecks defense may have been on the field longer than the painted number markers; I almost felt bad for them. Like the O-Line, the D-Line also needs work (granted not as much). They need to establish a pass rush and fill the gaps and that would help out so much. I would contribute most of their mistakes to getting worn down and being tired.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Linebackers
Drew Wells (ARL)
Charlie Thomas and Will Clarke had several tackles among them, as well as a 17-yard loss on a sack and a pass break-up for each of the two. A solid and dominant showing, as they made plays in the run and pass game both. For Houston, JT Tyler and Drew Lewis combined for 11 of the 48 tackles that Houston had. Very good players, but never should have to be making that many tackles without at least 1 being for a loss. They have good talent, but the Renegades will be the more effective LB group.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Cory Lozier (HOU)
With ST. Louis running backs climbing up into the second level Houston’s Linebackers had to do a lot of tackling. For this reason, three of the team’s leading tacklers are linebackers (Drew Lewis, Marvin Moody, and J.T. Tyler). For as much as the defense was on the field the linebackers made plays when they needed to. I expect this squad to lead the team all season. One thing I would like to see is a little aggressiveness when it comes to getting after the quarterback. With Perez on the other side of this matchup it may not be a bad idea to play around with having a linebacker on a QB spy every now and again. But also blitzing the linebacker can help put pressure on Perez and hopefully keep his eyes off his targets.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Defensive Backs
Drew Wells (ARL)
Arlington’s defensive backfield had 6 pass break-ups in what was a standout defensive performance for the team. I good chunk of the 159 passing yards they gave up was in garbage time / Prevent coverage scenarios. Houston’s secondary was hard to assess. They have good talent, but they get no real help from their defensive line (or coaching, for that matter).
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The DB’s (as well as the linebackers) were put to the test right out of the gate. And they, presumably will see similar issues this week against Arlingtons offense. They key will be communicating in coverage and they need to figure out how to create turnovers or get stops. If the offense cant keep them off the field then the defense will have to take matters into their own hands. A big issue last week was missed tackles. That needs to be addressed and fixed immediately if this defense is going to find success in any game. However, if they can do their job and stay off the field, I think Houston’s Defensive Backs are the better bet in this position breakdown.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Win and Score Predictions
Drew Wells (ARL)
Advantage Count: Arlington Renegades (7), Houston Roughnecks (0), Push (0)
Going off of Week 1 performances can be tricky, but in my opinion the evidence is clear to be seen. If Houston can not protect their quarterbacks, the game is done. Arlington’s defense is not one that will let you have success in both rushing and passing the football. Arlington is going to establish the run as a matter of identity it seems, but their pass game can’t just be ignored. Houston will have to have a complete turnaround from Week 1 to even have a chance in this game. Arlington, 33-9.
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Advantage Count: Arlington Renegades (4), Houston Roughnecks (3), Push (0)
I think this game is going to be won on the backs of both teams’ defenses. However, the Houston Roughnecks will face another team that has the ability to make plays when they count and pull ahead on the scoreboard. Luis Perez is going to need to be the main focus and finding out how to slow him down. I think the Roughnecks fall to the Renegades and start the season 0-2. Arlington 28-14
Betting Predictions
Line: Renegades (-8.5) O/U: 39
Drew Wells (ARL)
The line here is interesting, but is likely free money. I called a 33-9 Renegades win, and I’ll be sticking with that. Take the Renegades to cover, as well as the over.
Cory Lozier (HOU)
I can see the Roughnecks taking a small step forward as far as gameplay goes. Therefore, I don’t think it’s going to be enough to beat Arlington at home. So, put your bets on the Renegades to get the win and cover the 8.5 point spread while the over hits.