By: Cory Lozier (HOU) and Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
This weekend’s match-up between the Houston Roughnecks and the Michigan Panthers is set to be a pivotal game for both teams. The Panthers, currently holding a 5–2 record, are aiming to secure a strong finish to their season and maintain momentum heading into the playoffs . Under the leadership of head coach Mike Nolan, Michigan has demonstrated a potent rushing attack and a resilient defense, making them formidable opponents.
On the other hand, the Roughnecks, with a 3–4 record, are looking to rebound from a challenging season. Head coach Curtis Johnson’s squad has shown flashes of potential, and a victory against the Panthers could provide a much-needed boost to their confidence and standings.
This game promises to be a clash of contrasting styles and playoff aspirations, making it a must-watch for UFL fans.
Quarterbacks
Cory Lozier (HOU)
This qb comparison can be looked at from many different sides. Until the second half of the week 7 game, Roughnecks QB Jalan McClendon seemed nearly unstoppable. For example, he was doing a good job of going through his progressions to find the open man. Also, he is able to extend play with his legs and fit a pass into a tight window. The first half of the Birmingham game was everything the Roughnecks hadn’t been up to this point. For instance, they were consistently completing passes and moving the chains. But more importantly they found the endzone on back to back drives to start the game. On the other hand, the second half was the complete opposite where McClendon completed only 3 of his 12 passes. It’s hard to say which quarterback is going to step on the field. However, I must give them the benefit of the doubt.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Bryce Perkins is getting more comfortable each week dispite some hiccups last week. Against Arlington, he threw for 231 yards, rushed for 60, and made the critical scramble that got Michigan down to the 4-yard line with one second left. It wasn’t Perkins who scored the final points, but it was his abilities that set them up.
Jalen McClendon looked sharp early vs. Birmingham—they were up by 13 before the start of the third quarter. But once the Roughnecks lost momentum, the offense flatlined. McClendon was sacked, and nearly threw a late pick before getting sacked again to end the game.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Running Backs
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The run game for Houston hasn’t really found it’s footing this season. They have had both good and bad games, mostly on the low average side of things. The ground game does well enough to keep them balanced against teams with a .500 or lower record. Unfortunately, the schedule for Houston doesn’t favor that type of game. Every team left has a winning record and sits at the top of their divisions. While, the Panthers run game relies heavily on Perkins’ ability to be mobile, which hasn’t been an issue. Not to mention, RB Toa Taua is a great downhill runner with big play potential.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Toa Taua didn’t pile up yards last week, but he showed up in the biggest moment. He hauled in a crucial pass on the final drive to move the Panthers into the red zone. That set the table for the game-tying touchdown and game-winning 1-point conversion. Matt Colburn is expected back, giving Michigan another gear behind a surging offensive line.
Zaquandre White looked like a game-breaker out of the gate. He scored on Houston’s first drive, then took a handoff, broke through the second level, and outran the Stallions’ secondary for a 52-yard touchdown on their second. White finished the day with 9 carries for 69 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging a scorching 7.7 yards per carry. Lingard mixed in for three carries and 18 yards (6.0 YPC), showing some burst of his own, but didn’t see much volume.
This position group is a tough to call when considering yards gained this past week. Michigan closed with their strong push, but Houston came out swinging against the reigning Champions.
Advantage: Push
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Michigan has a very productive receiving core. However, my stance on this core ha not changed (check other “Shakedowns”). The hands team in Houston is deep and talented. For instance, Justin Hall, Keke Chism, and Lawrence Keys have a special ability to turn small completions into moved chains and big plays. Last week against Birmingham, Houston completed 11 of 14 passes for 119 yards through the air (in the 1st half). Aside from the most recent half of football the receivers have improved in every game leading up to this one. They have shown signs of potential and that they are a group that can hang with the best of them.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Siaosi Mariner led the Panthers with 86 yards on five catches last week, and Malik Turner added 49 yards, a touchdown, and a key conversion. The Panthers don’t air it out a ton, but when they need a play, these guys deliver. Tight ends Gunnar Oakes and Cole Hikutini continue to be quietly vital to the Panthers’ offense both in the run and pass game.
Houston’s receiving corps did most of their damage in the first half. Lawrence Keys III (4-65), Justin Hall (4-24), and Keke Chism (2-14, 1 TD) all contributed early. But they were held in check down the stretch. Few explosive plays, little separation, and no rhythm in the second half.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Offensive Line
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The o-line has taken a small step backwards. I’m not sure if it was because they were up against one of the better d-lines or not but they could not get it figured out. They gave a few sacks which is fine but they were letting the pressure through for most of the game. Again, recent display aside I do believe that Houston has developed into a pretty good pass protecting line and can get it back together. However, Michigan’s o-line has done great all year, add the elusiveness of Brydce Perkins and it’s a tough combo to beat.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Michigan’s line is trending up. Perkins still faced pressure at times, but in the big moments, they held strong. Especially on the drive and both goal-to-go situations to close out the game. With Colburn back and the rotation settling in, this group might be one of the most improved units in the league.
Houston’s front protected well in the first half. But as the game wore on, the cracks showed. McClendon took a sack-fumble late, and the offense stalled on multiple possessions with minimal push. Birmingham finished with 4 sacks on the day.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Defensive Line
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Many have found the huge hole in Houston’s d-line, no pun intended. Their defense is not known for being able to keep an aggressive run game under wraps as well as not being able to generate a pass rush. Tipped balls have been an ever increasing aspect of this d line but aside from that they have been pretty inconsistent in terms of performance. However, the good thing about this week’s matchup is the Panthers are next or near the Roughnecks in every d-line defining category.
Advantage: Push
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Even without Walter Palmore, the Panthers’ front is grinding. Kenny Willekes had a breakout showing with 1 sack, 3 TFLs, and 6 tackles. Ron Stone Jr and Mika Tafua consistently collapsed the pocket and each collected a sack themselves. Arlington only managed 1.4 yards per carry last week.
Houston had bright spots early—helping build that 25–12 lead—but they got bullied in the final two quarters. Tashawn Bower had the lines only sack off the edge, but the unit just couldn’t get a stop in the red zone when it mattered.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Linebackers
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The linebacker corps of the Houston Roughnecks and Michigan Panthers showcase contrasting strengths in the 2025 UFL season.
For Houston, Tashawn Bower has been a formidable pass rusher, ranking among the league’s top five in both sacks and tackles for loss. His aggressive play has significantly disrupted opposing offenses. Complimenting him, Marvin Moody Jr. has been a consistent presence in the middle, recording 56 tackles, including one for loss, and one pass breakup, already surpassing his stats from last year. In other words, his performance underscores his reliability and defensive awareness.
In contrast, Michigan’s Frank Ginda has been a tackling machine, leading the league with 62 tackles this season. Ginda’s ability to impact the game through tackles and interceptions has been pivotal for the Panthers’ defense.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Here’s where things get dicey. Frank Ginda was flying around again last week with 8 tackles, but he’s now on IR with a torn pectoral. That’s a big blow—he’s the emotional and often physical anchor of the defense. Michigan signed RJ Moten, a fast, instinctive Florida product who transitioned from safety at UofM to linebacker. He’ll be inactive this week so Dawkins and Mutin have some ground to make up.
Houston’s unit showed flashes with Marvin Moody racking up an impressive 13 tackles. Tyler hit the 5+ tackle mark, and Benson recorded 2 and a sack. But as Birmingham’s offense found rhythm, this group got caught flat-footed.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Backs
Cory Lozier (HOU)
The 2025 defensive backfield of the Houston Roughnecks has been the team’s standout unit, because of their game-changing plays. Not to mention, they are tied for the league lead in forced fumbles and rank among the top in interceptions, showcasing their aggressive and opportunistic style. Cornerbacks like Damon Arnette and Corn Elder have been instrumental, not only in pass coverage but also in creating turnovers. Safeties such as Leon O’Neal Jr. and Markel Roby add to the physicality, frequently delivering punishing hits and maintaining tight coverage. This cohesive unit has been pivotal in the Roughnecks’ defensive dominance, making them a formidable force in the league.
Advantage: Houston Roughnecks
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Michigan’s secondary had a rough outing overall. Keni-H Lovely led the way with 6 tackles and 2 pass breakups, staying active in coverage. DJ Miller Jr. and Arnold Tarpley III each added 5 tackles, with Tarpley also forcing a fumble. Kedrick Whitehead Jr. quietly delivered 3 solo tackles and 2 tackles for loss, showing physicality downhill. Kai Nacua contributed in sub-packages, but the unit as a whole gave up too many chunk plays and continues to struggle with spacing. Last week marked the second straight week Michigan gave up Offensive Player of the Week numbers, but still got the win.
Houston’s DBs played solid early but faded fast. They allowed Birmingham to score on their final four possessions, giving up sideline throws and middle-of-the-field gains with little resistance. One interception, but no impact plays down the stretch. With no one stepping up as a closer, the secondary became reactive instead of disruptive
Advantage: Push
Win and Score Predictions
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Advantage Count: Michigan Panthers (3), Houston Roughnecks (3), Push (1)
In true pick em fashion this game could go either way. I have watched both teams put up impressive performances, and I have seen them fail. The thing that pushes this over the edge for me is the fact that Michigan has arguably the best QB in the league on their side. He is an accurate passer who can make things happen in the pocket and extend play with his legs if he has to. McClendon is similar in his play style and ability but not to his degree. Michigan, 32-24.
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Advantage Count: Michigan (4), Houston (0), Push (3)
This match-up feels like two teams headed in opposite directions. Michigan is cohesive, gritty, and confident. Houston’s got juice, but they can’t finish. If the Roughnecks can’t clean up their second-half woes, it’s hard to see them pulling this one off. With Perkins commanding the offense, Taua continuing to deliver, and the defense playing sound up front, the Panthers keep the train rolling. Michigan, 28 – 16.
Betting Predictions
Line: Panthers (-6.5) O/U: 43.5
Cory Lozier (HOU)
Houston has covered the spread twice this season when they are 6 point underdogs I DO NOT think that will happen in this game. I expect Michigan to win by more than 6 points. Also, Both teams have hit the over in 4/7 of their games (each). I expect that to happen again hitting the OVER of 43.5 total points.
Jesse Germonprez (MICH)
Michigan is favored this week by more than a touchdown on the road, and I can see it. They’ve won three straight, shown they can close games in crunch time, and are getting healthier in (some) key areas. Houston’s possibilities make this an intriguing game, but their inconsistencies makes that -6.5 look achievable.
