By: Drew Wells
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
The Arlington Renegades and D.C. Defenders both have it all to play for when they meet today at Audi Field in our nation’s capitol. Both fighting for a playoff spot, these teams will no doubt have a chip on their shoulders coming into this one. The Renegades are two games behind in the standings, so a win is a MUST for them. Meanwhile a win for D.C. clinches a playoff berth. With everything on the line, this one is almost certain to be an instant classic!
Quarterbacks
Arlington and D.C. are both blessed. These are two really good QBs that are meeting for the second time this season, and are unquestionably the leaders of their teams. Jordan Ta’Amu has been dynamite for the D.C. Defenders, who sport the best passing attack in the league bar-none. The Arlington Renegades, headed up by Luis Perez, are a balanced attack with a precise and opportunistic passing game. Despite both teams having high caliber QBs under center, Jordan Ta’Amu gives D.C. the edge here. His ability to run the football when things break down could well be the difference in this game.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Running Backs
Unfortunately for Arlington, this position group will be an advantage to the Defenders. The Renegades lost Kalen Ballage to a season-ending shoulder injury, and now rely on the talented Dae Dae Hunter. The skill sets between those two are MUCH different, but Dae Dae adds a little bit extra in the pass game as opposed to Ballage. For D.C., Abram Smith and Deon Jackson form a good duo behind Ta’Amu. In terms of talent, D.C. wins this one.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
I’ll keep this one short: D.C. has the best WR group in the league. They are both deep and talented. Arlington has good play-makers as well, but as a whole their WR group is not the same threat that the Defenders flex.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Offensive Line
This is where things will get interesting! Both teams have a similar level of efficiency in the run game. The difference is the pass game, specifically keep the QB on his feet. The Defenders have only allowed seven sacks on the year, while Luis Perez has been pulled down by Arlington’s opponents 19 times.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Defensive Line
These two units are solid. Donald Payne is an absolute star for Arlington, and MUST be targeted as a priority in opponents’ game plans each week. Add to that a guy at DE like Chris Odom, and it becomes very hard to deal with that defensive line as a whole. The defenders sport a good unit across the board, but lack the star power that Arlington has. Both squads are good, but having a stud like Payne really gives a team an advantage.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Linebackers
I have doted on the LBs in D.C. all season long, and today will be no different. Momo Sanogo and Anthony Hines are all over the field constantly. The Defenders love to blitz from every position on the field, and that opens up lanes for guys like Hines and Sanogo. In Arlington the LBs are asked to play a much different role, as their defense relies on the defensive line to be their foundation so that pragmatism can “earn them their money”. Will Clarke does great things for their defense as a whole, but D.C.’s scheme wins them the advantage.
Advantage: D.C. Defenders
Defensive Backs
In the same way that I have been high on the linebackers in D.C., I have been really high on Arlington’s defensive backfield. The stars of their show are CB Ajene Harris and Joe Powell (S), but there is a quiet killer at their other corner spot: Charlie Thomas. He and Harris have 21 combined PBUs this season, and Thomas sports 12 of them. That’s just five less PBUs than D.C. has managed as a team all year! While D.C.’s secondary is a lot more involved in attacking the line of scrimmage in their scheme, coverage is the name of the game at this position group. Arlington has that in spades.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Win and Score Predictions
Drew Wells (ARL)
Advantage Count: Full Team Name (5), Full Team Name (2), Push (#)
This one is a tough call. If you watched the last match-up between these two, you saw an absolute meltdown by Arlington in the fourth quarter which led to a stunning D.C. comeback win. To me, this game has everything to do with heart when you consider what is on the line.
D.C. is returning home after a road trip of three games where they went 2-1. They have been largely inconsistent since Week 4, alternating wins and losses since then. Arlington is on a three game skid, but all of their games have been within six points (one possession). I think the Renegades have the perfect recipe to challenge the D.C. passing game, and feel like the Defenders’ offense is largely one-dimensional in that vein. I like the Renegades to end their skid and make things interesting for the final two weeks of the season. Arlington, 25-23.
Betting Predictions
Line: Defenders (-2.5) O/U: 43.5
Everything in me screams that after the first game being a high-scoring affair I should hammer the under here. Being who I am, I am not going to trust that feeling! Give me the over, and Arlington wins outright.
