By: Drew Wells (ARL) and Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
As the Memphis Showboats and Arlington Renegades face off this weekend, there is both nothing and EVERYTHING at stake. Both teams are out of the playoffs… So do they focus on winning the game or the analyzing the future? The answer is “both”. In the UFL, your individual future as a player is always at stake. It could actually be how well these players perform in “meaningless” games that lands them a break in the NFL, so the passion will still be visible on the field.
“Who wins” will be be a question of both grit and character, but where do the advantages lie overall? Find out with us as we at the Alternative Football Network evaluate yet another UFL match-up!
Quarterbacks
Drew Wells (ARL)
Memphis has been one of a couple of teams who have struggled under center this season. Three different QBs have taken snaps, and the results have largely been the same between them. E.J. Perry, Dresser Winn, and Troy Williams have not truly made themselves known as established names back there, but Dresser Winn seems to have been the best of them while sporting a positive ratio of TDs-to-INTs.
Arlington, meanwhile, has had the same QB for a few years now. After their hot 3-0 start, Arlington went downhill starting in week 4 and has crashed out of the playoffs altogether. Increased reliance on Luis Perez has not helped their game, as he is not the kind of quarterback that puts a team on his shoulders in terms of play-making. All that said, his floor is about as high as the ceiling for probably any Memphis QB.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
This one is easy. The Showboats haven’t announced their Game 9 starter as I write this. No matter who they go with, Arlington’s Luis Perez is better. For the Showboats, they started Troy Williams last week and got the win but only 36 yards passing in the process. Dresser Winn is clearly the best Showboats QB at gaining yards through the air, but new Offensive Coordinator Noel Mazzone might want to take a look at E.J. Perry in-person. What will make it interesting is: what if the Renegades bench Perez to focus on finding their QB of the future? Assuming they stay with Perez, Arlington wins this category.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Running Backs
Drew Wells (ARL)
These two squads seem to be moving in much different directions at this position. Memphis has made positive signings to give them a different dynamic from what Deneric Prince offers. Jalen Jackson was brought into the fold recently, and displayed great explosiveness in his standout performance last week. Arlington, on the other hand, has been really soul-searching after they lost Kalen Ballage to a season-ending shoulder injury. Dae Dae Hunter has shown good burst and versatility, but he can’t provide that same bruising presence that Ballage combined with his burst and speed. The Arlington offense has really shifted to a heavy reliance on the passing game, so the RBs don’t have as big an impact on their games.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Showboat Jalen Jackson had his breakout game against the Brahmas, bursting through for 76 yards and a TD with a 10.9 yards-per carry average. Deneric Prince has shown he is a can have a good run up the middle on occasion but is only averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Memphis signed running back Jada Byers this week after his time in NFL spring camps. Could he be a key piece in the future? For the Renegades, they haven’t had the same balance since Kalen Ballage went down with an injury. Dae Dae Hunter stepped into the starting role but has shown he is better in the support role. Tony Jones Jr made his first appearance for the Renegades last week and had 6 carries for 36 yards. That’s a solid clip, but not enough to establish a baseline. Neither team owns this category outright but Memphis gets the slight edge.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Drew Wells (ARL)
Despite middling QB play down the stretch, the Renegades receiving corps has shown themselves as a formidable force. Four Arlington wide-outs/tight ends have over 25 receptions on the year despite being in an offense that predicated itself on establishing the run game until the midway point in the year. On the other side, the ‘Boats have a standouts in Jonathan Adams. This guy is a stud, but doesn’t have much in the way of a supporting cast. While I love standouts and think they generally force an advantage most times, QB play lets Memphis down and affects the WRs heavily.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Jonathan Adams is third in the UFL with 418 receiving yards. He is the Showboats go-to Wide Receiver when they absolutely need a first down. They also have 2024 UFL star Daewood Davis back from injury; Daewood had his first catch of the season on a two-point conversion in O.T. against the Brahmas. Kai Locksley, Kwamie Lassiter, Isaiah Washington and Jay Jay Williams have all had key receptions this season and would be a stellar receiving room on any team with consistent QB play. The problem, the Showboats are lacking that very thing. Watching the Renegades’ WR/TE’s catch for almost 300 yards against the Defenders in Week 8 reminded me of the 1984 Houston Gambler team. Both the ’25 Renegades and ‘84 Gamblers use 5 smaller, speedy, sure-handed receivers to get beyond the defensive bubble for mass gains. Vaughns, Winstead, Cannella, Burnett & Payton are the new Johnson, Moser, Sanders, McGhee, and McNeil.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Offensive Line
Drew Wells (ARL)
Both teams have had similar numbers on the ground to this point, but there is a vast chasm between them in the passing game. Arlington bests Memphis in total passing yards on the season by 500+ yards. Contrarily, the Showboats have only given up 12 sacks on the year to Arlington’s 20. I think the production outweighs the “sacks” stat. Add to this that Bob Stoops is on the sidelines and you get a look at a well-managed (yet admittedly under-performing for their talent level) offense that doesn’t find itself in bad situations very often. I look for the Renegades offensive line to keep Perez upright and have the overall better performance.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
As I have mentioned in previous Shakedown articles, the Showboats O-Line is much improved over the 2024 version. The Showboats have allowed 12 sacks through eight games, preventing the likes of Breeland Speaks and Carlos Davis from reaching the QB. The Renegades have allowed 20 sacks on the year but have the ultimate field general behind them at QB who makes them look better than they are. Both O-lines are serviceable but lack depth. Showboats have a slight edge.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Defensive Line
Drew Wells (ARL)
This one is a simple evaluation when you think about it. Arlington has nearly double the sacks that Memphis does this year, and that is in large part thanks to Kyon Barrs and Chris Odom. These two are simply on a different level in terms of individual talent and skill in the trenches, and that’s not a remark directed at any other team in general. They have simply outperformed almost every other unit in the league in terms of stopping the run. Combined they have more tackles than their leader in the same stat on the defense in Arlington. When you have that kind of success in a d-line duo, it is often going to give you an advantage as a team. There is potential in the Memphis defensive line, but they don’t have anyone that truly stands out as a commanding presence.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
It’s about time I gave Josiah Bronson more credit for what he has done all year; consistent pressure up front. Josiah made a spectacular big man interception against the Brahmas in the Boats overtime win. He and Boogie Roberts collapse the middle while Jaylon Allen and Izayah Green-May come off the edge. DeVere Levelston adds DT depth and has a sack in each of the past two games. The Renegades use more of a three-man front but use it effectively. Amani Bledsoe, Kyon Byars, and Will Clarke have the luxury of having Chris Odom and LaRon Stokes coming off the bench to back them up. Odom leads the UFL in tackles for loss. In Blitz situations they can slide Taco Charlton up to the line to gain an advantage from the edge. I’d hate to face either of these formidable D-Lines.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Linebackers
Drew Wells (ARL)
Will Clarke has been the standout on the Arlington side while leading the team in tackles this year. Alongside him, Myles Dorn and Charlie Thomas have seen great success as well. This LB corps isn’t asked to do a ton in terms of run support, but they still knock it out of the park in that area. In Memphis, Steele Chambers and Zeke Vandenburgh are a formidable force as well. These two have nearly 100 tackles combined this year, which definitely paints a picture of solid performances and high efficiency. In terms of talent Arlington seems to have the edge, but when you consider the roles and responsibilities the these two groups hold within their schemes it becomes too close to call.
Advantage: Push
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Andrew Dowell play over the past few games is making NFL scouts wonder why he isn’t still in their league. Steele Chambers continues his tackling prowess, trailing only Tavante Beckett in number of tackles on the season. LB Zeke Vandenburgh prevented a potential game-tying pass from reaching its mark in overtime. All three of these guys are sure to get NFL camp invites in July. For the Renegades Donald Payne is one of the best linebackers in the UFL (8th in tackles) and Willie Taylor is 3rd in the UFL in sacks. The Renegades aren’t as deep at Linebacker but they get the nod by a nose.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Defensive Backs
Drew Wells (ARL)
Every time… Every. Single. Time. I sound like a skipping track when it gets to this position each week in an Arlington “Shakedown” article, but when you have guys like Joe Powell and Ajene Harris at the helm in your defensive backfield you are likely to have an advantage in the UFL. They aren’t even the only ones making plays back there, but they command respect and live rent-free in the heads of opposing OCs and QBs alike.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
I called out cornerback Cam Dantzler last week for not having any interceptions and he made me eat my words with a brilliant pick-six against the Brahmas. Keaton Ellis, Eli Walker, Lance Boykin, and Kyree Woods also had good games against the Brahmas, limiting them to 123 yards passing. The Renegades have the best defensive back in the UFL, Cornerback Ajene Harris, and one of my personal favorites, Joe Powell at strong safety. Harris is #1 in interceptions (3) and passes defended (13) and seventeenth in tackles (43) on the season. Free safety Myles Dorn has had several good games this season. Ajene Harris is the difference maker for this position group.
Advantage: Arlington Renegades
Win and Score Predictions
Drew Wells (ARL)
Advantage Count: Arlington Renegades (5), Memphis Showboats (1), Push (1)
Arlington seems to be the better put together squad of these two, but they have demonstrated an inability to put games away when the opportunities presented themselves down the stretch. This, quite simply, is why they are not in the playoffs. That said, I think they have a bit more in the tank in terms of production overall than Memphis. Arlington, 18-13.
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Advantage Count: Arlington Renegades (5), Memphis Showboats (2), Push (0)
Arlington is clearly better at putting points on the board. The Renegades have produced 2,437 yards and 176 points so far this season compared to the Showboats 2,107 yards and 127 points. The Renegades defense showcases some of the best players in the UFL. The Showboats defense is better than average too. They’ll keep the game close, as they have all season. Arlington, 22-18.
Betting Predictions
Line: Renegades (-4.5) O/U: 40.5
Drew Wells (ARL)
I think the under is a smart play here. Both offenses have been on the struggle bus, and both defenses flash play-making ability. I think Arlington covers as well, but just barely. I won’t lie to you all… there will be no money from my wallet going on that one!
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The over/under is at 40.5. Early this season, before UFL offenses started to click, taking the under was like minting your own gold. That trend has certainly changed as offenses have improved their timing and odds-makers have taken note. This game is set at 40.5 and according to my score prediction I should take the under. Renegades are favored by 4.5 and my prediction is a four point spread, therefore, take the Showboats to cover, but place both bets with caution. A half-point difference in both scenarios doesn’t leave much wiggle room.
