By: Jesse Germonprez (Mich.) and Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
Two playoff-bound teams meet in a preview of the USFL Conference Championship when the Michigan Panthers travel to Birmingham to take on the Stallions in the early afternoon slot on Saturday, May 24th. Michigan enters the game riding high off a 30–18 win over Houston, while the Stallions are fresh off a gut wrenching 29–28 loss to the Battlehawks in St. Louis.
Quarterbacks
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
With Bryce Perkins officially ruled out, the reins stay in Danny Etling’s hands. The veteran proved he can steer this offense, throwing for 167 yards, 3 TDs, a 126.3 rating, and adding 22 rushing yards in the win over Houston. Etling won’t break games open the way Perkins can, but his poise and quick decisions keep the offense on schedule—and Michigan can rest easier knowing he’s already delivered under live fire.
Birmingham counters with J’Mar Smith, who went 14-of-27 for 262 yards and 3 TDs at St. Louis, but those numbers were padded by a few splash plays—including a 65-yard strike to Deon Cain— but also a late interception. Smith’s highs are electric; his lows keep drives sputtering. All told, the quarterback picture for both teams is less than ideal considering anticipated starters before the season.
Advantage: Push
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Danny Etling for Michigan was great last week against Houston. He only threw for 167 yards but found the end zone on three occasions and never threw an interception. Etling would be sufficient to be the guy this week if he has to go, but it looks like Perkins could be returning, as he was a full participant in practice.
Even with missing some time, Perkins is second in the league with 1342 passing yards and nine touchdowns. He has only thrown two exceptions this year, which has led to his team’s success. On Birmingham’s side, it’s so hard to tell who is starting with the number of injuries they have suffered in the quarterback position. J’Mar Smith played alright last week in the one-point loss, but he turned the ball over three times! If Cookus is healthy enough to play, he could be a better option, but with the playoffs all set, will either team play their starters or give them more rest? Who knows….
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Running Backs
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Toa Taua continues to be the reliable workhorse for Michigan. He’s tough between the tackles, knows how to fall forward, and has been automatic on one-point conversion attempts. Nate McCrary adds a bit of burst and physicality, giving Michigan a steady two-back rotation and depth with Colburn who is still inactive.
Birmingham split carries between Marable, and Person Jr., but the production was underwhelming. Thirty carries yielded just 124 yards when adding Smith’s numbers on the ground, but no back had a gain over 11 yards. Without a real threat in the run game, they leaned on explosive pass plays and with Person Jr off the active roster that will likely remain the case.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Toa Taua has been a steady workhorse this season and is over 300 yards rushing. He is also tied for the league lead with five rushing touchdowns. Nate Mcrary has been used effectively as well and has gained another 268 yards himself, and has two rushing touchdowns to his credit. The solid run game will help if it’s a more inexperienced hand under center.
For the Stallions, running the ball took time, and they are getting more effective. However, passing is the priority. I’m firm in my belief that Ricky Person Jr. can take over a game with his legs if given the chance, but the play calling hasn’t called for that. Pearson is making a decent mark this year with 268 yards, and C.J. Marable has contributed 205 of his own. Both guys combined have punched it in four times in 2025. There are some positives to Birmingham’s run game, but Michigan’s is superior.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Malik Turner and Devon Ross emerged as a strong one-two punch with Etling at the helm. Turner’s route running and toughness across the middle pairs well with Ross’s ability to win deep and along the boundary. Mariner, Nacua, Moore, and Oakes give Michigan a deep bunch of pass-catchers, each stepped up with Etling last week. Offensive coordinator Marcel Bellefeuille schemes receivers open regardless of who is on the field.
The Stallions rely heavily on explosive plays. Deon Cain had just two catches—but they went for 115 yards and two scores. Cadde Johnson’s 47-yard touchdown was another example of Birmingham’s big-play potential. Still, their offense feels boom-or-bust. Michigan’s is more balanced but Birmingham has home-run potential.
Advantage: Push
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
The current top man in receiving yards after Week 8 is Deon Cain of the Stallions. He has been an explosive option for whichever quarterback is out there with 436 total yards, which averages 62.3 per game! He is also tied for second with four touchdown receptions, only one behind D.C.’s Cornell Powell. However, after Cain, there is a drop-off to Jace Sternberger at 188 receiving yards. The Stallion’s passing game can be very one-dimensional. Sternberger has been becoming more active as of late. Michigan’s pass game is fairly one-dimensional as well, but it’s split between Siaosi Mariner and Malik Turner. Combined, they have accumulated 747 receiving yards. Mariner has yet to haul in a touchdown, but Turner has four. This battle will be very tight but crucial.
Advantage: Push
Offensive Line
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Michigan’s offensive line kept Etling upright and productive but allowed 2 sacks, one coming on the first drive. They aren’t the flashiest group, but they’re cohesive and technically sound on both fronts. Their red zone performance has improved, and they’ve limited negative plays in recent weeks.
Birmingham’s unit gave up three sacks against a physical Battlehawks front. J’Mar Smith took hits throughout the game, and running lanes were hard to come by. Pass protection has been hit or miss, and pressure late in games has led to mistakes.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Birmingham has given up 21 sacks, but Michigan has only given up nine! That difference is crazy! Do you even need anything else? Can I give the Panthers two points?
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Defensive Line
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Ron Stone Jr. recovered a key fumble last week, and the defensive front kept Houston’s run game in check after an early burst. The group didn’t record a sack, but applied the pressure and created plays on the back end.The Panthers rotate bodies well and have become increasingly disruptive as the season goes on. DPOY Breeland Speaks coming off IR and straight to the active roster should also be a huge boost to the group.
On the flip side, Birmingham’s defensive front was gashed for 173 rushing yards by St. Louis. Jacob Saylors alone racked up 118 yards on 16 carries and Duggin added 54 more. Max Roberts was credited with half a sack, but was placed on the inactive list for the week. The Stallions were unable to get off blocks in the second half, and let the game slip away in the fourth quarter. This one comes down to recency bias.
Advantage: Michigan Panthers
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Michigan and Birmingham are the top two in rushing yards given up, with the Panthers being slightly more stingy with 690 yards given up compared to the Stallions’ 724. However, the Stallions’ defense has gotten to the quarterback 16 times in 2025 compared to the Panthers’ 13. Defensive end Bradlee Anae leads the Stallions with four sacks, with nine other players having contributed to the sack total this season. Only six players on Michigan have been in on a sack this season.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Linebackers
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
With Frank Ginda was placed on IR, Michigan’s linebacker corps has been forced to adjust and to their credit, they’ve held up admirably. Noah Dawkins and Donovan Mutin each recorded six total tackles in Week 8, Dawkins added a tackle for loss. James Neal continues to contribute as a rotational piece, giving the group a bit more range but was places on the inactive list. That said, this unit isn’t as dominant without Ginda commanding the middle. They’ve stayed disciplined, sure, but there’s been more cleaning up than attacking downhill.
Meanwhile, Birmingham rolls out a much deeper linebacker rotation. Tae Crowder and DeMarquis Gates led the group last week with five tackles apiece, and Gates added a half sack. Kyahva Tezino and Chapelle Russell round out a physical and experienced core. None had an eye popping statline, St. Louis didnt breaking anything wide open in the second half.
The Panthers have been steady, but the Stallions still bring more speed, depth, and impact at the second level and will get more of it with RJ Moten hitting the active roster. If this becomes a game decided by linebacker pursuit and pressure, Birmingham has the edge.
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Both linebacker corps are the solid base of each team’s defense. Michigan’s Frank Ginda leads the team with 61 tackles, and he has picked up 2.5 sacks for the team. For the Stallions, Kyahva Tezino and Tae Crowder combined for 77 tackles, but neither has earned a sack. This is another tight comparison, and I can’t decide. Call it a dead heat.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Backs
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Michigan’s secondary has quietly become one of the most reliable units in the UFL. Keni-H Lovely’s pick-six last week was a turning point and showcased the groups preformance. The coverage isn’t flashy, but it’s disciplined—and the communication has tightened up. Tarpley and Whitehead continue to consistently lead the team in the tackle category. This unit is heating up at the right time.
Birmingham’s secondary held Max Duggan to just 110 passing yards and no receiver had over 36 yards. AJ Thomas had an interception in the third quarter and five tackles while Tre Norwood led the team with eight. The group played well in St. Louis, but it just wasn’t enough to pull out the win. Its hard to single out one of these units from the other, even with Michigan having the pick-six based off last weeks performance.
Advantage: Push
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
One major flaw of Michigan is that they have given up a lot of passing yards. They have given up the most passing yards this season at 1632. They have also allowed 11 passing touchdowns, which is the worst in the league. On the other side, Birmingham has given up 1410 passing yards, which is the second least. Also, they still rank at number one with only four passing touchdowns allowed. The Stallion’s passing defense has been why they have been able to survive their quarterback carousel!
Advantage: Birmingham Stallions
Win and Score Predictions
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
Advantage Count: Michigan (3), Birmingham (1), Push (3)
With Etling under center again, the Panthers won’t have quite the same offensive ceiling as with Perkins, but they’ve shown they can still get it done. The offense should stay efficient, and the defense is already in playoff form. Birmingham will be dangerous at home, but Michigan has proven it can win on the road against quality opponents and the defense is getting a jolt with Speaks back in the fold.
If the Panthers control tempo early and limit Birmingham’s big-play chances, they can tilt the game in their favor. Expect yet another hard-fought, grind-it-out type of win. Michigan, 25-20.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
Advantage Count: Michigan Panthers (3), Birmingham Stallions (2), Push (2)
I have no idea how this game will go. Will both teams play starters, or will they rest? Will they play half a game or not at all? Who knows!?!? Birmingham, 21-20.
Betting Predictions
Line: Stallions (-3) O/U: 44.5
Jesse Germonprez (Mich.)
With Perkins officially ruled out, the line has shifted to Birmingham -3, marking the first time in weeks Michigan enters as an underdog. It’s a big swing from earlier in the week and not all that surprising—Birmingham has won the last four UFL meetings between these teams, and Michigan will be without their starting QB.
The total holds at 44.5, but without Perkins, the pace could slow down. Etling keeps the offense steady, but the explosive upside takes a hit. Backing Michigan here requires trusting the defense to show up again and Etling to stay clean. The play here is Michigan +3, but it feels like this is anyone’s game.
Trey Colbeck (BHM)
This very well could be another one-point game for Birmingham, but I’d still consider taking them to cover. I’ll take the under at 44.5 because of the unknown. It’s hard to see either team balling out when both have clinched a playoff berth.
