By: Royce Waxenfelter (MEM) and RJ Reid (SA)
Our weekly breakdowns associated with UFL games will follow the format of both correspondents providing a brief write-up of who they think holds the advantage at each position group on the field. This will be followed up with a brief prediction of how the game will turn out, followed by a score prediction. Las Vegas betting odds will be provided, along with how the correspondents would play their money when evaluating the match-up.
To see previous iterations of The Shakedown (and more) from this season, check out the AFN News Page!
Pretty simple this week… It’s a battle for pride. One of these teams will get their second win of the season; who gets the W?
The two worst teams in the UFL square off when the Memphis Showboats (1-6) visit the Alamo City for the first time to play the San Antonio Brahmas (1-6). We at Alternative Football Network bring you a quick look inside at who may have the advantage at each position group in this weekend’s game. You can catch the game on Friday, May 16th on FOX at 8:00 pm ET / 7:00 p.m. CT.
Quarterbacks
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Another matchup of QBs who were 3rd stringers at the start of the season. Showboat QB Dresser Winn had another good overall showing in Week 7. Even under the severe pressure by the Battlehawks onslaught he didn’t throw an interception or make any decisions detrimental to his team. He has a solid 86.2 QB rating on the year and is averaging 212 pass yards per game. For the Brahmas, Kevin Hogan had a solid outing against a tough D.C. team. He is averaging 205 pass yards per game and has a QBR of 90.5. Winn has youth, Hogan has experience. Both are making smart decisions with the ball. I’d give either one a chance if I was starting an expansion team.
Advantage: Push
RJ Reid (SA)
In Week 7, Brahmas quarterback Kevin Hogan completed 20-of-31 passes for 229 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions, perhaps the best offensive output of the season for San Antonio. The Brahmas’ 11.8 points per game (league-low) and 123.5 all-purpose yards per game (8th) reflect offensive struggles. There are no Brahmas quarterbacks among top passers, indicating inconsistency, however, Hogan’s performance the past two weeks should solidify him as the starter for the remainder of the season.
Dresser Winn completed 21-of-34 passes for 196 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. The Showboats’ 15.7 points per game (7th) and 94 all-purpose yards per game (7th) show limited production. Hogan’s Week 7 efficiency (64.5% completion) gives San Antonio a slight edge over Winn’s performance.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Running Backs
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Showboat Wes Hills was showing his value to Showboats fans again before he came out of the game with an injury. As I write, his status for Week 8 is unknown and that could be problematic for the Showboats. With both Hills and Deneric Prince in the lineup they give Memphis a very balanced attack. Prince has proved to be a downhill runner with the ability to punch through the line of scrimmage and pick up tough yards; he’s averaging 33 yards per game.
The Brahmas running back room lost their only productive member a couple weeks ago when Anthony McFarland was injured. They made a huge move this week to pick up another speedy back, Jaden Shirden, to try to duplicate what McFarland was good at: getting the ball in space and making elusive moves for big gains. Right now, he has too small of a sample size to give him the edge, especially if Hills is suited up for Memphis.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
RJ Reid (SA)
Anthony McFarland’s injury has permitted Jashaun Corbin to emerge as the workhorse for the Brahmas. He ran for 109 yards on nine attempts, including a 57-yard touchdown run. The Brahmas’ 123.5 all-purpose yards per game (8th) drop without McFarland, but Corbin’s recent performance shows potential.
Deneric Prince rushed for 44 yards on 17 carries (2.6 yards per attempt). Their 94 all-purpose yards per game (7th) highlight ongoing struggles in the run game.
Despite McFarland’s absence, Corbin’s last performance outshines Memphis’ 3.2 yards per attempt and 89 yards a week ago.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Daewood Davis’ made his return but he needs more practice time with QB Dresser Winn so they can get their timing down. They failed to connect on all five targets. Jonathan Adams returned to early season form, catching four passes for 69 and a TD to put him back in the UFL’s top spot in catch yards. Kai Locksley had his breakout game for the Showboats, catching three for 60 yards. It’ll be interesting to see if they can insert draft pick tight end Thomas Burke, who just signed this week after participating in NFL spring tryouts. Showboats receivers have been under-performing all season, and recently made a trade to add deep threat Dee Anderson. Jontre Kirklin, Justin Smith, and Marquez Stevenson all have the ability to be solid performers, but none have shown consistency so far this season.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
RJ Reid (SA)
Jacob Harris led with 247 receiving yards over five games (49.4 per game), but his propensity to drop passes is a huge concern as he leads the UFL in that dubious category. In 2024 vs. Memphis, Jontre Kirklin had eight catches for 61 yards and a touchdown while Marquez Stevenson had six for 103 yards and a score. Inconsistency at the quarterback position has limited the wide receiver’s production as evidenced by their 11.8 points per game.
Jonathan Adams had four catches for 69 yards and a touchdown in Week 7. The Showboats’ 197 all-purpose yards per game (6th) rely heavily on Adams, but last week’s 184 passing yards show potential. Despite Hogan’s performance the past two games, Brahmas’ receivers are prone to drop passes, especially during critical moments in the game. Memphis has been more consistent in catching passes, so they have the very slightest edge.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Offensive Line
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The offensive line of Memphis did its best to hold off the smothering pressure of the Battlehawks defense. While it may have seemed like more, the Boats only allowed two sacks in the loss to St. Louis. They’ve limited defenses to only nine sacks on the year, which is exactly half the sacks the San Antonio Brahmas o-line has allowed. Memphis has improved its o-line this year compared to last year, but San Antonio’s o-line protection has fallen off a cliff.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
RJ Reid (SA)
The Brahmas allowed three sacks last week while only managing 70 rushing yards at 3.5 yards per carry. Hogan’s three sacks and one lost fumble which lead to a scoop-and-score solidifies San Antonio’s pass-protection issues. Their 123.5 all-purpose yards per game (8th) reflect decent run-blocking. The release of Greg Eiland weakens depth, but it could be addition by subtraction.
Memphis’ line allowed two sacks allowed 113 rushing yards (4.5 yards per attempt). Their 7 sacks allowed and 94 all-purpose yards per game (7th) confirm a porous unit. Both offensive lines have not performed at a high level, but San Antonio’s struggles at the offensive line are more glaring that the Showboats. Memphis has the slightest edge here.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Defensive Line
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
When P.J. Hall went down with an injury the Showboats signed DeVere Levelston in relief. DeVere had his first sack of the season against the Battlehawks in Week 7, DE Jaylon Allen added a sack of his own, and Boogie Roberts and Josiah Bronson. In the Battlehawks previous 6 games they averaged 140.5 rushing yards per game, but this Showboats D-Line helped limit them to only 113 rush yards. Brahmas Prince Emili, Kobe Jones, Jacob Sykes, and Rashard Lawrence do an OK job pressuring opponent QBs but have a lower than average 5.5 sacks on the year. Kobe Jones is underrated but I give the slight edge to Memphis for this position group.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
RJ Reid (SA)
Week 7’s 1-of-7 on third-down defense for San Antonio vs. D.C. shows improved performance in getting the opponents off the field. Their 156 all-purpose yards allowed per game (8th) is inflated by a tough schedule.
In Week 1, Memphis allowed 460 yards to St. Louis, including 273 rushing yards (UFL record) and three touchdowns to Jacob Saylors. In Week 7, they allowed 257 all-purpose yards to Saint Louis. San Antonio’s defense has been gashed by opponents the entire season, including surrendering 352 yards to DC last week. The once vaunted defense has fallen mightily this season, but some improvement has been shown as of late, but not enough to get the advantage here.
Advantage: Memphis Showboats
Linebackers
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Memphis’s most consistent player this season is linebacker Steele Chambers. He has at least 5 tackles in every game this year, tied for third highest in the league with 58. Zeke Vandenburgh and Andrew Dowell, the other Showboats LBs, are having good seasons as well. On the Brahmas side, Tavante Beckett and Jordan Williams are elite. Beckett is 2nd in the league in tackles with 61 and Williams is the LB tied for 3rd with Chambers. The UFL is stacked with awesome Linebackers but no tandem beats San Antonio’s.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
RJ Reid (SA)
The Brahmas only mustered one sack against DC and only one tackle for loss. They recorded zero turnovers on defense, although the special teams unit did force a fumble. Jordan Williams continues to lead the Brahmas in tackles, despite the lack of big plays this season.
Boogie Roberts continues to be a big personality, but his stats look average. He recorded three tackles against Saint Louis. Week 7’s 113 yards allowed to the Battlehawks shows improvement, but the run defense remains a weakness. Brahmas have an ever so slight edge again in this category, as both teams have not lit the UFL on fire. San Antonio has improved since the beginning of the year and playing against a Showboat’s team that has not score points in bunches could help improve their overall statistical rating.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Defensive Backs
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
On Sunday, Showboat Kyree Woods picked off St. Louis quarterback Maxx Duggan for the 2nd Memphis INT of the season. Corner Cam Dantzler delivers big hits but I honestly expected several interceptions from him… he has none so far. Eli Walker, 44 tackles, and Keaton Ellis, 33 tackles, lead the Memphis DBs in that category. For San Antonio, Jordan Mosely, 44 tackles, and Jalen Elliott, 39 tackles, are the tackle leaders for the Brahmas DB squad. Both teams are at the bottom of the league in INTs and neither has merited the advantage.
Advantage: Push
RJ Reid (SA)
The Brahmas have only recorded three interceptions all season long, and are averaging 147.7 passing yards per game against them. This stat could be deceiving as opponents are having large success running the ball against San Antonio, so they are not needing to throw the ball as much.
Only the Showboats have fewer interceptions on the season than the Brahmas, with two interceptions on the season. They are giving up an average of 189.6 passing yards per game. With both backfields not exactly lighting the world on fire, San Antonio has the slimmest edge.
Advantage: San Antonio Brahmas
Win and Score Predictions
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
Advantage Count: Memphis Showboats (4), Brahmas (1), Push (2)
Both teams are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, so they are playing for pride at this point. The Brahmas showed some life against the Defenders in the first half of their Week 6 game. Ultimately, a fumble at the end of the 2nd quarter changed the momentum, and the Defenders made the biggest comeback of the year. It was like watching a tire deflating. The Showboats were outmatched by the Battlehawks, but showed sparks of brilliance. If Wes Hills is healthy and back in the lineup, the Boats will have a balanced ground and air attack and will come away with the win. Memphis, 20-18.
RJ Reid (SA)
Advantage Count: San Antonio Brahmas (4), Memphis Showboats (3), Push (0)
This game will be a low-scoring defensive battle, with both offenses struggling. The Brahmas should exploit Memphis’ line and limit Winn. The Brahmas’ running game has improved with the emergence of Corbin and they can control the clock, but averaging 11.8 points per game and injuries cap their output. Memphis has played tough against some of the league’s better teams, and they should keep it close. San Antonio, 14-10.
Betting Predictions
Line: Brahmas (-1.5) O/U: 36.5
Royce Waxenfelter (MEM)
The over/under is at 36.5 points. These two QBs have shown that they are capable of higher outputs than their teams did before they were injected into the starting roles. The over should hit. Additionally, Brahmas are favored by 1 and I agree it will come down to a very narrow margin. The Brahmas are hanging on by a fingernail; I believe the Showboats will cover the spread and nudge them over the ledge.
RJ Reid (SA)
The Brahmas cover the -.51 spread, and the game stays under 36.5 points, driven by San Antonio’s defensive edge and both teams’ offensive woes (see San Antonio’s 11.8 and Memphis’ 15.7 points per game).
